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GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar rally undermines Wall Street, oil prices

Published 12/11/2009, 01:28 PM
Updated 12/11/2009, 01:30 PM
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* Dollar rallies broadly after stronger U.S. consumer data

* Oil slips to near $70 a barrel, a 2-month low, on dollar

* U.S. stocks pare gains on strong dollar; Nasdaq falls

* Bonds fall on improved prospects for economic recovery (Updates with U.S. markets, changes byline, dateline, previous LONDON)

By Herbert Lash

NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - A U.S. dollar rally on Friday pulled down oil prices and weighed on Wall Street after strong U.S. data raised recovery prospects and buoyed expectations the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than later.

The dollar rose to a two-month high against the euro after data showed U.S. consumers stepped up their spending in November and grew more optimistic this month, lifting hopes a sustainable recovery was starting to unfold. For details, see: [ID:nN11143194] [ID:nN11254372]

The euro at one point fell to $1.4587 , according to Reuters data, the lowest since early October.

U.S. stocks pared early gains as the dollar's strength undermined shares of large-cap technology companies and dragged the Nasdaq into the red because the bulk of tech earnings come from abroad. [ID:nN11262433]

Oil fell and hovered just above the key $70 a barrel mark after seven days of declines. The dollar's strength tempered an early rally sparked by forecasts of higher global demand and strong Chinese industrial output. [ID:nNSP395010]

The dollar rally and weaker U.S. stock marked a shift in a trading strategy that is based on a cheap U.S. currency. Signs of an improving economy has put upward pressure on interest rates, though, and made dollar-based funding more costly.

"The risk appetite trade we've been talking about for months is breaking down and I think the correlation between positive U.S. data and dollar strength is going to take hold," said Melvin Harris, market strategist at Easy Forex in New York.

"It's 100 percent about interest rates," Harris said. "More of this data will have people thinking the Fed may raise rates a little bit faster than initially expected, which means access to cheap money will start to wind down."

Low U.S. interest rates have undermined the dollar in recent months as investors borrow in the low-yielding greenback and reinvest the money in stocks, commodities and higher-yielding currencies in search of higher returns.

The data was the latest in a series of reports released this week that showed the U.S. economy may expand at a brisker pace in the fourth quarter than the 2.8 percent annual rate in the July-September period.

U.S. stocks initially opened higher after sales last month posted their biggest advance since August. The data assuaged investor concerns about consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the economy.

The S&P Retail index <.RLX> rose 0.8 percent, while the S&P Consumer Discretionary sector <.GSPD> at one point was the top percentage gainer among S&P 500 sectors.

At 1 p.m., the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was up 57.81 points, or 0.56 percent, at 10,463.64. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 3.63 points, or 0.33 percent, at 1,105.98. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 1.40 points, or 0.06 percent, at 2,189.46.

"The much stronger-than-expected retail sales number has rekindled expectations of a rate hike sooner than anticipated," said Samarjit Shankar, managing director of global FX strategy at BNY Mellon in Boston. "It does appear that the U.S. consumer has been a little bit more resilient than anticipated."

European equities advanced for a second straight session, boosted by mining shares and the U.S. data. [ID:nGEE5BA21P]

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares closed 0.5 percent higher at 1,010.16 points.

U.S. Treasuries prices fell on the stronger U.S. data. [ID:nN11428021]

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 12/32 in price to yield 3.55 percent.

U.S. light sweet crude oil fell 60 cents to $69.94 a barrel.

The dollar was up against a basket of major currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index <.DXY> up 0.73 percent at 76.603.

The euro was down 0.85 percent at $1.4609. Against the yen, the dollar was up 1.28 percent at 89.31.

Gold prices fell 1 percent to four-week lows in Europe, giving up gains that earlier took them above $1,140 per ounce, as upbeat U.S. economic data lifted the dollar. [ID:nGEE5BA0ZE]

Spot gold prices fell $16.60 to $1115.00.

A slew of data earlier the day showed China is on a brisk path to recovery, buoyed Asian equity and commodity markets.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan rose almost 0.9 percent <.MIAPJ0000PUS> and Japan's Nikkei share average <.N225> rose almost 2.5 percent. (Reporting by Ryan Vlastelica, Wanfeng Zhou and Ellen Freilich in New York; Kirsten Donovan, Jan Harvey, Michael Taylor, Emma Farge in London; writing by Herbert Lash; Editing by Andrew Hay)

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