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GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar rallies, stocks gain on end of credit talk

Published 10/26/2009, 01:50 PM
Updated 10/26/2009, 01:54 PM
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* Wall Street slips on speculation of end of tax credit

* U.S. dollar rises as stocks, commodities fall

* U.S. Treasury prices sag on supply, rate-hike worries

* Crude oil slips almost 3 percent as dollar gains (Updates with U.S. markets, changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON)

By Herbert Lash

NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The dollar rallied from 14-month lows versus the euro on Monday as global stocks and crude oil reversed course and fell amid concerns about an economic recovery.

Speculation that a credit for first-time U.S. homebuyers will be phased out helped lift the dollar while investors scaled back commodity holdings following a rally for raw goods.

Gold prices edged lower as the dollar bounced off 14-month lows against the euro, with weak physical demand for the precious metal also weighing. For details, see [ID:nLQ93767].

It was a turnaround for the dollar, which struggled earlier in the wake of a report saying China should increase its holdings of euros and yen in its foreign reserves.

The euro fell to session lows just below $1.49 on the EBS platform after earlier hitting a 14-month high at $1.5064.

Crude oil slumped almost 3 percent, toward $78 a barrel, after trading as high as $81.58.

"There is selling spread out among a broad array of commodities," said analyst Brad Samples of Summit Energy in Louisville, Kentucky. "The dollar is now up, after earlier being down, and that is helping to point crude oil lower."

Analysts also said investors felt uncomfortable pushing the euro higher given the huge amount of bearish trades on the dollar, which suggests a near-term recovery in the U.S. currency is on the horizon.

Data earlier in the day unexpectedly revealed German consumer sentiment declined for the first time in just over a year going into November. [ID:nLN478719]

The ISI Group said that there could be an agreement to phase out, rather than extend, the home buyer tax credit, according to Art Hogan, equity strategist at Jefferies & Co in Boston.

Several traders attributed the drop in U.S. stocks to ISI's research note.

"Anything that stops the printing press is going to help the dollar," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. But "any time you pull away a bailout, the market doesn't like it," he said.

U.S. stocks pared losses after U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, a Florida Democrat and member of the Senate Finance Committee, told reporters that he expects the U.S. Senate to extend the $8,000 tax credit "later this week." [ID:nWEN5370]

However, Nelson said that the Senate's action "would be an extension for a limited period of time" because the tax credit expires on Nov. 1.

Shorty after 1 p.m. (1700 GMT), the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 96.21 points, or 0.96 percent, at 9,875.97. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 10.55 points, or 0.98 percent, at 1,069.05. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 11.43 points, or 0.53 percent, at 2,143.04.

The energy and materials sectors, which had helped lift major U.S. indexes more than 1 percent earlier, reversed course as U.S. crude futures fell below $80 a barrel while the ICE Futures dollar index <.DXY> gained 0.7 percent.

In Europe, heavyweight energy shares led shares to surrender early gains after crude oil fell and the dollar rebounded. [ID:nLQ208070]

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares closed down 1.2 percent at 996.50.

U.S. Treasury debt prices fell amid worries about this week's record auction of $123 billion in bonds and speculation the Federal Reserve is paving the way to raise interest rates sooner than expected. [ID:nN2652818]

The early rally on Wall Street added to bond selling, which pushed benchmark yields to their highest levels since August. Encouraging company results boosted optimism over the pace of recovery and curbed safety bids for low-risk government debt.

Short-term interest rates futures implied traders are pricing in the chances of the U.S. central bank raising rates in the second quarter of 2010, rather than the third quarter.

Ten-year euro zone government bond prices recovered from a one-month low as Wall Street shares reversed initial gains to end the session little changed on the day. [ID:nLQ215655]

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 15/32 in price to yield 3.55 percent.

The dollar was up against a basket of major currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index <.DXY> up 0.67 percent at 76.974.

The euro was down 0.96 percent at $1.4856. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.07 percent at 92.10.

U.S. light sweet crude oil fell $2.38, or 2.96 percent to $78.12 a barrel.

Spot gold fell $12.85 to $1,041.60 an ounce.

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> fell 0.2 percent, holding below a near-15-month peak set last week, while Japan's Nikkei average <.N225> ended up 0.8 percent at 10,362.62. (Reporting by Angela Moon, Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Joshua Schneyer and Richard Leong in New York; George Matlock in London and Blaise Robinson in Paris; Writing by Herbert Lash; Editing by James Dalgleish)

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