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GLOBAL MARKETS-Risk shunned as oil extends drop, yen bounces

Published 04/12/2011, 02:01 AM
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* Charts indicate further declines in crude to come

* Commodity stocks, currencies also give up gains

* Japanese blue-chips weaken on earnings worries (Adds quotes, context)

By Ramya Venugopal

SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - A decline in crude oil prices on Tuesday from a 32-month high that could extend in the near term triggered a bout of profit taking in risky assets, causing investors to sell equities and slash their bets against the yen and U.S. dollar.

The global rout in commodity prices also hurt demand for the Australian dollar, which dropped 2 percent against the yen, and weighed on U.S. stock futures.

The drop in crude was triggered in part by a Goldman Sachs report, which advised investors to lock-in trading profits before oil and other commodity markets reverse. [ID:nN11113549].

"Open interest has been building up since the start of the new quarter in April, reflecting fresh inflows of speculative money into the oil market," said an energy analyst at a leading Japanese trading house who declined to be named.

"The Goldman report put a damper on this flow, at least for now, given that there was a sense of an overshoot in the market," he said.

Brent crude for May fell to a low of $121.97 a barrel, easing from Monday's 32-month peak of $127.02. U.S. crude fell to as low as $107.87.

Developments in Libya, where a peace bid collapsed on Monday, may also provide cues. [ID:nLDE73A2B7]

Brent may fall to as low as $118.67, while U.S. crude may find support at $106.81, charts indicated.

Commodity shares from Australia to Japan led a broad decline in Asian equities, after energy and metals prices slid overnight, while gold and silver, traditionally safe-haven investments, also gave up gains.

Tokyo's Nikkei share average ended the day down 1.6 percent, as blue-chip stocks declined on increasing uncertainties about the earnings outlook after the March 11 earthquake.

"Many people worry that more and more large-cap companies including big automakers may cut their earnings estimates for the business year," said Hideo Arimura, senior fund manager at Mizuho Asset Management.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was down 1.8 percent and on course for the biggest daily decline since the quake in Japan triggered panic selling in the region on March 15.

Days after that though foreign investors had been key buyers of Asian shares, pushing the benchmark indexes of major markets up between 7 percent and 13 percent over the past three weeks.

YEN RECOVERS SHARPLY

The yen gained about 1.0 percent against the dollar, about 1.3 percent against the euro and more than 1.7 percent against the Australian dollar .

A series of aftershocks haunted Japan, which raised the severity of its nuclear crisis to the highest level, putting it on par with Chernobyl. Some traders said that the market was by now getting numb to the quakes. [ID:nL3E7FB2TZ]

The U.S. dollar fell to 83.80 yen per dollar , off a seven-month low of 85.54 set on Thursday. The euro slipped to 120.58 yen , down from Monday's peak of 123.33.

Spot gold slipped to hit a low of $1,453.31 an ounce on Tuesday, retreating from a record $1,476.21 an ounce on Monday, while spot silver traded at $40.12 an ounce, below a 31-year high at $41.93 struck on Monday.

U.S. 10-year Treasury notes edged higher in Asia on Tuesday, helped by a pull-back in oil prices and U.S. equity futures, but near-term gains may be limited if an uptrend in commodities resumes.

Ten-year U.S. Treasuries yielded 3.558 percent , down 4 basis points from late U.S. trade on Monday , pulling away from a seven-week high of 3.62 percent hit last Friday. Ten-year note futures rose 4/32 to 118-18.5/32 . (Additional reporting by Chikako Mogi, Risa Maeda, Antoni Slodkowski in TOKYO, and Reuters FX Analyst Rick Lloyd, Editing by Kevin Plumberg)

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