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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares fall for 2nd day; confidence wanes

Published 06/09/2009, 02:33 AM
Updated 06/09/2009, 02:57 AM
TM
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* Asian shares falter for 2nd session; rally overdone?

* Dollar gains; euro eases after S&P's Ireland downgrade

* Oil extends gains ahead of U.S. crude stocks data

By Rafael Nam

HONG KONG, June 9 (Reuters) - Asian shares fell for a second straight session on Tuesday as investors worried a three-month rally may be overdone, though oil prices extended gains ahead of data this week expected to show a fall in U.S. crude inventories.

The dollar rose and the euro remained under pressure after Standard & Poor's on Monday became the second credit agency this year to cut Ireland's "AAA" sovereign rating. [ID:nL8601886]

The S&P action -- followed by Fitch's downgrade of Malaysia's local currency rating on Tuesday -- reinforced concerns about the mounting debt levels many countries are taking on to fund costly programmes to spur flagging economic growth or rescue their banking systems. [ID:nSP211849]

Still, European shares appeared set to recover on Tuesday from losses a day earlier, and combined with the oil price gains seemed to indicate that some investor appetite for higher-risk assets remains.

Data from Germany showed manufacturing orders held steady in April after a sharp increase in March, a further sign that the worst may be over for the economy. [ID:nL8712053]

"What we are seeing is an inevitable adjustment after strong optimism boosted the market," said Masaru Hamasaki, a senior strategist at Toyota Asset Management.

"Investors are shifting their focus to risk factors such as rising long-term interest rates that could affect an economic recovery or higher commodity prices that could impact corporate earnings in the latter half of the year."

The two-day loss in Asian shares comes after markets surged from lows hit in early March. As of last week, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index of stocks outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> had gained 63 percent from its 2009 low on March 4.

That index lost 1.2 percent on Tuesday, after falling 2.1 percent on Monday. A flat finish in U.S. stocks overnight also robbed Asian markets of some momentum, analysts said.

In Japan, the Nikkei average <.N225> retreated 0.8 percent after hitting its highest close in eight months on Monday.

Among other major Asian indexes, Hong Kong <.HSI> and South Korea <.KS11> fell more than 1 percent each, while Australia shed 0.9 percent.

Taiwan <.TWII> fell 3.2 percent to a one-month closing low as technology shares such as smartphone maker HTC <2498.TW> slumped after reporting weaker-than-expected sales in May.

Although recent gains have reflected expectations of a global economy that is on the mend, the question is now how strong or fast any recovery would be.

Other investors are looking longer-term and worry about potential surging inflation down the line after central banks have sharply cut interest rates, while deteriorating public finances are yet another concern.

A strong rebound in inflation could force central banks to raise interest rates sooner than they would like, potentially choking off a global economic recovery.

The IMF and World Bank said on Monday the path to global economic recovery is rife with risks and the onus is on policymakers to avoid runaway inflation and other pitfalls that could derail the process. [ID:nN08320170]

Fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates from the current near zero percent as early as the end of the year hit U.S. Treasuries this week.

RATINGS CONCERNS

S&P had already roiled markets last month after cutting its outlook on Britain's "AAA" rating to negative, though the debate immediately turned to whether the United States' top rating might also be at risk.

Ireland lost its "AAA" rating from S&P because of the agency's concerns about the soaring cost of bailing out the country's banking sector. The country had already lost the coveted top credit rating from Fitch in April.

Malaysia saw its long-term local currency ratings cut by one notch to "A" by Fitch Ratings, which expressed concern about a growing budget deficit that the agency sees hitting 7.7 percent of gross domestic product this year. [ID:nKLR207856]

Among major currencies, the euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.3860 , though that was still above the two-week low of $1.3806 hit on trading platform EBS on Monday, its lowest since late May.

The dollar gained 0.1 percent against a basket of major currencies <.DXY>, still riding on strength from Friday, when data showing smaller-than-expected U.S. job losses stoked expectations that the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates from near-zero later this year, much earlier than expected.

The Malaysian ringgit fell to 3.533 per dollar, down 0.8 percent from its interday high at 3.506, after the Fitch action.

U.S. Treasuries were little changed in Asia ahead of an auction of three-year notes, pausing after a three-day slide.

Two-year notes edged up to yield 1.395 percent. U.S. short-term interest rate futures, which track market expectations for Fed rate policy, are now fully pricing in an increase in the overnight federal funds rate to 0.5 percent in December, and possibly more.

The Fed lowered the funds rate to a range of zero to 0.25 percent in December last year as it tried to halt the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The benchmark 10-year note was little changed in price to yield 3.876 percent after climbing as high as around 3.91 percent on Monday, their highest since November.

Investors were still willing to chase the rally in oil prices, however, ahead of data on Wednesday that is forecast to show U.S. crude stocks have fallen by 400,000 barrels last week, according to a Reuters poll. [EIA/S]

U.S. crude futures were up 55 cents at $68.63 a barrel after having touched a seven-month high above $70 on Friday. (Editing by Kim Coghill)

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