By Emily Kaiser
WASHINGTON, May 31 (Reuters) - The global economic recovery rally may be getting ahead of reality.
Investors have begun venturing out of safe-haven shelters such as the U.S. dollar and government bonds, something policy-makers hope is a reflection of growing confidence that the world economy is on the mend.
But one side effect is that borrowing costs are going up, making it more expensive for people to buy homes or to invest in their businesses. Some analysts worry that could smother the recovery before it gets going and put pressure on central banks and governments to pour even more public money into the economy.
Last week, the price of oil soared to a six-month high, the U.S. dollar fell to a five-month low and U.S. government bonds went on a wild ride that at one point drove the gap between short- and long-term rates -- known as the yield curve -- to the widest level on record.
"Watching 10-year Treasury yields shoot higher over the last two weeks, I couldn't shake the sinking feeling that we may be watching the end of the recovery party," said Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo.
"I fear if yields rise much further, the green shoots will not just wilt, but turn brown and die, forcing us to yet again downgrade our outlook for the economy."
Yields fell on Friday, but the volatility provides an uncomfortable setting for U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's first official trip to China for talks on Monday and Tuesday.
Geithner will be trying to reassure one of the largest holders of U.S. government debt that the United States will move swiftly to get its debt under control once a recovery begins. For more, see: [ID:nN28370599]
THE GREAT UNWIND
China held $767.9 billion in U.S. Treasuries as of March, government data shows, and so far there is no evidence that it has cut back on its purchases. But Chinese officials have expressed concern that the value of their investments will fall if soaring U.S. debt triggers inflation.
That is why unwinding the stimulus -- both in the form of government spending and central bank lending -- will be critically important to the fiscal future of the United States and the stability of the global economy.
Inflation fears are suddenly back in vogue, which may be a signal that investors have their doubts about whether the rich world can safely unwind a multitrillion-dollar recession-fighting campaign.
There is little evidence of price pressures at the moment, and in fact, the U.S. Federal Reserve seems far more concerned about the risk of deflation.
But the threat of inflation is already on the minds of some European Central Bank officials, who have been stressing the importance of clearly explaining how they intend to tighten monetary policy once the economy rebounds.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has said repeatedly that having a credible exit strategy was of the essence to ensure that inflation doesn't build.
Still, none of the developed world's major central banks are talking about tightening yet. If anything, the next move will be to pump more money into the financial system.
The ECB and the Bank of England both hold policy-setting meetings on Thursday. Both are expected to hold short-term borrowing costs steady, and the ECB may provide more detail on its plans to purchase assets to stimulate the economy.
$1 TRILLION MORE?
The Federal Reserve has already committed to buy up to $300 billion in U.S. Treasury securities and $1.45 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. But as interest rates on U.S. home mortgages rise in tandem with bond market yields, some economists think the Fed will have to do even more.
Michael Pond, a strategist at Barclays Capital in New York, said the Federal Reserve ought to step in and buy up to $1 trillion in Treasuries to cap mortgage rates.
"Refinance activity has already turned down, and if rates were to rise further, the Fed would run the significant risk that another leg down in the housing market could lead to a double-dip in the broader economy," he said.
On Friday, investors will get yet another reminder that the U.S. economy is still suffering. The closely watched monthly employment report is expected to show another 517,000 jobs were lost in May, driving the unemployment rate to a nearly 16-year high of 9.2 percent.
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A contracting economy coping with high unemployment certainly doesn't need higher interest rates. (Editing by Dan Grebler)