By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
WASHINGTON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The fate of a nascent global economic recovery may rest on how quickly U.S. employers begin hiring again. Prospects, so far, are not encouraging.
The United States, by far the world's largest economy, returned to expansion in the third quarter of 2009 after the worst recession since the 1930s. Now, the trick will be to sustain that vigor as a heavy dose of government spending fades.
"There are still headwinds from high levels of job loss and foreclosures," said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse.
Any weakness in the United States is likely to have widespread repercussions in Europe and Asia, whose export-oriented economies depend heavily on the spending habits of U.S. consumers.
That will probably weigh heavily on the minds of European Central Bank officials, who are set to meet on Thursday and are expected to offer clues as to how they will begin to pull back from a string of emergency measures enacted in the wake of the global credit crisis.
The coming week holds plenty of data points that will help shed light on whether the global rebound can be sustained. Of primary importance is the U.S. Labor Department's employment report for November, set for release on Friday.
It is expected to show another 140,000 jobs were lost this month, marking nearly two years of continuous job losses. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at a 26-year high of 10.2 percent.
In Germany, aggressive government measures that encourage companies to cut back on employee hours rather than laying off workers have played a key role in stemming the pain of the economic downturn. Even so, the country's jobless rate in November, due out on Tuesday, is projected to have risen to 8.2 percent after four months of decline.
In the United States, in an economy that relies heavily on consumer spending, persistent joblessness is making retailers nervous about the holiday shopping season.
"People are going to spend less as a consequence of job losses," said Eric Lascelles, chief economic strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.
U.S. President Barack Obama is convening a summit in Washington this week to discuss what might be done to boost job creation.
FAITH OR FROTH?
It's not just employment. Another key factor makes many uncertain about whether the rebound in business activity is sustainable: increasingly volatile markets that may have already returned to their old frothy ways.
In a study published last week, Lascelles found that an increase in speculative finance in recent years has made world markets inherently more prone to bubbles. Even in the aftermath of a devastating meltdown, he says, heavily leveraged bets on financial assets continue to dominate markets, particularly now that governments and central banks around the world have shown they will step in to stop large investment firms from failing.
Volatility has surfaced in various assets, from U.S. stocks, up about 60 percent from their March lows, to gold, which has raced to a record near $1,200 an ounce, all hampering businesses' ability to plan.
"The bubble-generating dynamic remains alive and well," Lascelles said.
World markets bounced around for a second day on Friday after Dubai earlier in the week said it would ask creditors of two flagship firms, including conglomerate Dubai World, for a standstill on debt payments as part of a restructuring.
This pattern creates a quandary for the U.S. Federal Reserve. Fragile markets and a weak economy still require plenty of monetary stimulus. At the same time, the Fed's ultra-easy policy continues to batter the U.S. dollar, which tumbled to a 15-month low against the euro last week.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently said the Fed was monitoring the currency closely for signs that speculators might be exploiting the low rates to make bets on higher-yielding assets elsewhere in the world. He is sure to be asked about it again on Thursday, when he faces a congressional confirmation hearing on his appointment for a second term as Fed chairman.
Many top officials in Asia say the speculation is already taking place, and President Obama was lectured on the matter during a trip to China this month. While China pegs its currency to the U.S. dollar, other key Asian economies, which depend largely on exports, can suffer as a rise in their exchange rates makes their goods more expensive.
Japan's finance minister, Hirohisa Fujii, on Friday raised the prospect that the Group of Seven nations might have to release a joint statement on currencies to cool the yen's climb after the dollar hit a 14-year low against the Japanese currency.
Despite this unfavorable exchange rate outlook, Japanese industrial output is expected to have jumped 2.5 percent in October, building on a recovery that began in March. (Editing by Padraic Cassidy and Maureen Bavdek) ((pedro.dacosta@thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 898-8300; Reuters Messaging: pedro.dacosta.reuters.com@reuters.net))