GLOBAL ECONOMY-Europe data upbeat, mkt eyes new US stimulus

Published 12/08/2010, 09:58 AM
Updated 12/08/2010, 10:04 AM

* German industrial output rises more than f'cast

* France raises outlook, UK manufacturing upbeat

* Europe's top economies strong as US, weaker peers struggle

By Annika Breidthardt

BERLIN, Dec 8 (Reuters) - German industrial output soared past expectations and France's central bank upped its forecast for fourth-quarter growth on Wednesday, signs that Europe's biggest economies are speeding ahead while the debt crisis puts the brakes on smaller peers.

Upbeat economic signs from Germany, France and Britain also contrasted with the United States, where authorities are still worried enough about jobs and growth to be taking new steps on taxes and bond-buying to stimulate the economy.

German industrial production rose by 2.9 percent on the month in seasonally adjusted terms, beating even the most upbeat forecasts in a Reuters median poll of 1.0 percent, preliminary data from the Economy Ministry showed on Wednesday.

That adds to evidence Europe's largest economy will start 2011 in high gear, even as a sovereign debt crisis and resulting budget austerity undermines hopes for growth in Spain, Portugal, Ireland and others.

The crisis has already prompted Greece and Ireland to seek EU/IMF aid and fears are spreading that Lisbon and possibly Madrid could be next.

"The data show the core countries in the euro zone are in good shape, with Germany leading the pack. Only the peripheral states are struggling," said Fabienne Riefer, an economist at Postbank Research. "The divergence is here to stay for 2011."

French firms capitalised on Germany's stronger imports by exporting more to Germany in October and France's central bank also raised its fourth quarter growth forecast to 0.6 percent in a report on Wednesday.

UK manufacturing figures were again upbeat, reinforcing the case for countries to press on with strong budget consolidation.

However, a survey of purchasing managers earlier this month in Greece, which is going through its deepest recession since 1974, showed its manufacturing sector continued to contract in November, with domestic demand weak. [ID:nSLAUME6JE]

Meanwhile, a key gauge of business confidence in Portugal fell for a second straight month in November. [ID:nLIS002514]

CONSOLIDATE MORE

The strong tone contrasts with the United States, where the jobless rate last month hit a seven-month high and President Barack Obama has agreed to extend tax cuts for two years to reinflate the economy.

The deal with Republicans to preserve Bush-era tax cuts gave stock markets a boost across the globe, but concerns it may also spell longer-term budget strife drove U.S. bond yields to six-month highs.

That compares with efforts by the Federal Reserve, which this week hardened its tone on a $600 billion bond-buying programme that aims to bring yields and borrowing costs down.

U.S. 10-year yields are around 70 basis points above where they were when the Fed announced its "QE2" bond-buying programme in early November.

Li Daokui, an academic adviser to the Chinese central bank pointed to questionmarks over Washington's fiscal approach in comparison to European governments who have been desperately cutting back on spending in a bid to ease pressure on market yields.

"For now, market attention is still on Europe and for the coming 6-12 months, it will not shift to the United States," Li said when asked about U.S. President Barack Obama's plan to extend tax cuts for all Americans. [ID:nN07288652]

"But we should be clear in our minds that the fiscal situation in the United States is much worse than in Europe.

Employment in the United States barely grew in November, hardening views the Federal Reserve will stick to its $600 billion plan to shore up the anemic recovery.

IMPORTS WILL HELP

Other data from Germany showed unadjusted imports rose to a post-war record in October -- a sign of rising domestic demand which European and global peers hope will spread the benefits of German growth and help ease global imbalances. [ID:nLDE6B707H]

Euro zone peers have criticised Germany for its reliance on exports and weak consumer spending but imports from euro zone countries to Germany rose 17 percent compared to a year ago.

"As domestic demand recovers in Germany, that may help the peripheral countries, but that won't be a topic before 2012," said Riefer at Postbank.

Economists expect the euro zone economy to expand 1.7 percent in an uneven recovery this year, the highest in two years of polling. It is then expected to slow to 1.4 percent next year before picking up again to 1.7 percent in 2012.

(Reporting by Annika Breidthardt in Berlin, Zhou Xin, Simon Rabinovitch and Kevin Yao in Beijing; editing by Patrick Graham)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.