By Dave Graham
BERLIN, Nov 25 (Reuters) - German consumer sentiment should improve slightly in December because shoppers have become less reluctant to spend money in spite of their deepening recession fears, the GfK market research firm said on Tuesday.
The Nuremberg-based GfK's forward-looking gauge of
sentiment, based on a survey of 2,000 Germans, rose to 2.2 for
December from 1.9 in November. Economists polled by Reuters last
week had forecast a reading of 1.5
"The financial crisis may have reached the real economy, but on the whole is not affecting consumer sentiment," GfK said.
The rise was fuelled by an increase in the indicator's willingness to buy component (for November) to -6.7 from -18.2, as well as a gauge of consumers' income expectations, which jumped to -6.9 from -12.9 in the previous month.
These gains offset a renewed fall in a measure of consumers' economic expectations, which fell nearly three points to -30.1, the lowest since GfK began polling all Germany in 1991.
Because German household spending has seen little growth in recent years despite an economic upturn in 2006-2007, a number of analysts believe consumers could act as a relative anchor of stability for Europe's largest economy in the current crisis.
The economy entered a recession in the third quarter, though preliminary figures from the Federal Statistics Office indicate consumer spending had a positive impact.
Employment is at a record level, inflation is easing and the savings rate is at a 14-year high, offering some hopes for consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 60 percent of German gross domestic product (GDP).
GfK said that falling oil prices and a pay rise secured for the country's 3.6 million engineering sector workers this month had also encouraged shoppers to be more relaxed.
"As a result, the consumer climate was again able to successfully withstand the widespread recessionary trends towards the year end," GfK said.
Nevertheless, with the Ifo think tank's closely-watched gauge of business sentiment plunging to its lowest level in nearly 16 years on Monday -- after the latest GfK survey was conducted -- the outlook appears bleak.
"Whether the current improvement will be sustained in the coming months will primarily depend on how severe and sustained the recession is," GfK said. "The extent to which the labour market is affected by the economic downturn is crucial."
"Should the employment situation deteriorate again, with a significant rise in the number of unemployed, this would also have a lasting impact on consumer sentiment." (Reporting by Dave Graham; editing by Noah Barkin)