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FXOUTLOOK-Dollar likely to fall in week ahead on good news

Published 07/17/2009, 02:40 PM
Updated 07/17/2009, 02:48 PM
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* Dollar likely lower in week ahead on any good news

* Few reports to guide trading in the week ahead

* Fed's Bernanke gives semiannual testimony to Congress

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar is likely to ease in the week ahead as investors perceive any good news on the U.S. economy as being positive for riskier assets globally, prompting them to sell greenbacks to buy those assets.

While a strengthening U.S. economy should attract investors into U.S. assets, in recent months it has actually sent investors searching for yield into securities elsewhere on the bet that a stronger U.S. economy will drive growth elsewhere.

Conversely, when the U.S. economy falters, investors have fled back into the relative safe haven of the dollar on the bet that the U.S. government will always have the means to back its currency.

"We are still in the risk aversion/risk tolerance trade," said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at FX Solutions in Saddle River, New Jersey. "I hate it, it's a cliche but it is still true."

Profit news was mixed over the week with better-than-expected earnings this week from financial stalwarts Goldman Sachs Group Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co offset by news that General Electric profits fell by half and Bank of America posted a lower quarterly profit.

But despite day-to-day gyrations, investors focused more on the good news, with positive economic reports such as stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales for June, adding to higher risk tolerance this week. [ID:nN13376897], a trend only expected to continue in the coming week.

For the week, the dollar index -- the dollar against a basket of six currencies -- fell 1 percent, its worst week since May 24.

The euro rose 1.3 percent against the dollar, its best week since May 24. The dollar rose 2 percent against the yen, its best week since June 7.

The main highlight of the week ahead will be Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress. Investors will be seeking clues on when the Federal Reserve will begin to wind back the extraordinary stimulus measures such as quantitative easing it undertook at the height of the U.S. financial crisis.

If that signal comes soon, investors will perceive it as evidence that the U.S. economy could soon show positive growth.

Investors will be looking "for a clear signal of when the Fed will pull these extraneous measures they put into the economy six or seven months ago," said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of trading at Tempus Consulting in Washington.

Bernanke will speak before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday followed by testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.

Though there is very little U.S. data next week to drive market moves, anything could cause volatility in thin trading with Northern Hemisphere traders taking summer holidays at various times through to early September.

Monday sees the release of June leading indicators which are forecast to rise 0.5 percent, according to a Reuters poll.

Perhaps the most exciting report for traders will be released on Thursday when the U.S. Department of Labor announces initial jobless claims for the week.

Investors will be looking for an unexpected drop from expectations as a further sign that the economy is recovering. Conversely, any jump in the number of claims will be seen as a sign that an economic recovery is not as close as investors hope. A Reuters poll indicated a consensus forecast of 548,000 initial claims for the week ending July 18.

Existing home sales for June will also be released on Thursday with economists forecasting an annualized rate of 4.8 million.

The final reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers for July will be released on Friday and is expected to be 65.0 compared with 70.8 previously. (Reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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