* 2010 seen negative for global equities
* Floating income bonds favored
* Institutional stock allocation practices set to change
By Edward Krudy
NEW YORK, Dec 10 (Reuters) - After a blistering rally in global equity markets this year stocks will likely fall in 2010 as the U.S. economy struggles to add jobs and stretched consumers are unable to deliver growth rates of the past.
That is the view of David Wright, a portfolio manager at Sierra Investment Management in Santa Monica, California, who will not be investing any more money in equities in the current climate.
He favours other asset classes such as floating income securities.
Wright believes that in the post crisis world institutional investors will become more flexible when allocating money to stocks rather than maintaining a fixed allocation in the asset class. He believes this economic 'new normal' is here to stay.
"We are not putting anymore money into equities because we don't see any exploitation value there," said Wright. "Stocks will be negative in 2010 ... I think we are poised for another down cycle."
Wright helps manage the $230 million Sierra Core Retirement fund (SIRAX), which focuses on conservative investors. The fund of funds gains exposure through buying other mutual funds. It is up 28.6 percent this year compared to a 22 percent rise in the S&P 500 <.SPX>, according to fund tracker Morningstar.
Hopes of a quick turnaround in the global economy from the worst recession in decades has helped the S&P rally 63.1 percent since hitting a bear market low in early March. In addition corporate management have protected profits by cutting costs and laying off employees.
Unemployment in the United States unexpectedly fell to 10 percent in November, from 10.2 percent the previous month, grist to the mill of those looking for a fast recovery. Wright believes the number is a false dawn.
"We are looking at a very difficult new normal when jobs are going to be scarce for many years to come," he said.
Wright's fund uses a series of metrics, including moving averages, to decide when to buy and sell assets. On the basis of those metrics the fund had only 13 percent of its holdings in foreign and U.S. equities as of the end of September, cutting back from 42 percent in March this year.
When the S&P bottomed out on March 9 Wright says the fund was 90 percent in cash.
Now he is looking at floating income corporate bonds as a way to play an environment of falling equity returns and rising interest rate expectations. The fund had 13.7 percent of its assets in two floating income funds run by John Hancock Mutual Funds and Fidelity, as of the end of September.
"We are looking at a (corporate) profit recession and recovery but the recovery has been on the basis of cost cutting and firing people. You cannot do that for ever," said Wright.
He believes his flexible approach to asset allocation has helped protect clients money and labels as "goofy" conventional Wall Street wisdom that holds equities are destined to rise inexorably over time - cold comfort to anyone set to retire and caught in the middle of a market crash.
The habit of many mutual funds to hold a set proportion of their assets in stocks according to their investors risk profile may change in the post crisis world, says Wright.
"Even the academics are questioning efficient market theory and modern portfolio theory which we never bought into," he said. "There will be a rethinking of the place of equities."
In September of 2008, the month when the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers sent financial markets into a downward spiral, the fund had 77 percent in cash equivalents, 23 percent in bonds and no equities.
That year the fund closed down 2.8 percent even as the S&P lost 38.5 percent of its value, said Wright.
"It is usually for brief periods that cash is your best asset, but don't be afraid to do it because you protect your client," he said. (Reporting by Edward Krudy; Editing by Andrew Hay)