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FUND VIEW-Kokusai bond fund says recovery hopes overdone

Published 05/01/2009, 06:45 AM
Updated 05/01/2009, 06:48 AM
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* Kokusai bond fund ups exposure to AUD, CAD, NOK since Dec

* Sees China's fiscal stimulus helping commodity exporters

* May boost such investment further if recovery takes hold

* But sees market's global recovery hopes overdone for now

* Cautious on euro near-term, unplan allocation boost there

By Masayuki Kitano and Michiko Iwasaki

TOKYO, May 1 (Reuters) - Hopes for a global recovery seem overdone now, and Japan's Global Sovereign fund will bide its time before further raising exposure to commodity currencies like the Australian dollar and Norwegian crown, its chief fund manager said.

While turmoil in financial markets has subsided, it is hard to expect a quick recovery in the global economy, especially since financial sector troubles remain, said Masataka Horii, chief fund manager for Kokusai Asset Management Co Ltd's Global Sovereign Open Fund, the world's second-biggest bond fund.

"We want to confirm that there has been a move to the next step before putting Global Sovereign into another gear and increasing allocations to Australia or Norway, or shortening bond durations," Horii told Reuters in an interview on Friday.

Global Sovereign invests in government bonds with high credit ratings and is the world's second-largest bond fund after PIMCO Total Return Fund of the United States, according to data compiled by fund research firm Lipper.

Global Sovereign had total assets of 4.47 trillion yen ($46 billion) as of April 23.

The fund has been a symbol of Japanese households' appetite for higher-yielding foreign assets over the past few years.

But its popularity took a hit late last year as the yen surged, and the fund has suffered net fund withdrawals for six straight months from October to March, according to data compiled by Lipper.

Horii said he was cautious about the prospects for a quick global recovery, partly because of doubts about how much of a boost China's fiscal spending will provide to the overall global economy.

Given China's focus on boosting domestic spending through infrastructure projects, countries that benefit from China's stimulus spending are likely to be mainly commodity-exporting countries, he said.

"We think countries that export copper and iron ore to China will be the main beneficiaries," Horii said.

In contrast, China's stimulus could be less of a boon to countries like Japan and Taiwan, whose companies export intermediate goods to China for assembly, and then sell the finished products in the United States.

Such factors, coupled with the fact that fiscal conditions in Australia, Canada and Norway suggest they have room to use fiscal spending to stimulate their economies, is why Global Sovereign has increased allocation to the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Norwegian crown, Horii said.

Global Sovereign's exposure to the Canadian dollar rose to 5.2 percent of its portfolio as of early April, up from 4.7 percent at the end of 2008. Its allocation to the Australian dollar increased to 3.1 percent from 1.1 percent and exposure to the Norwegian crown rose to 4.1 percent from 2.1 percent.

One currency the fund is not planning to increase exposure to over the next several months is the euro, Horii said, adding that an economic recovery in the euro zone seemed likely to lag behind a recovery in the United States and Britain.

"Our assumption is that the currency, the euro, will weaken," Horii said, adding that such views were based purely on near-term economic factors, rather than concerns about the euro's long-term viability.

Global Sovereign's allocation to the euro stood at 38.1 percent in early April, little changed from the end of last year. Its exposure to the dollar stood at 26.7 percent, down from 27.1 percent at the end of 2008.

The fund had 11.5 percent of its portfolio in Japanese bonds and yen cash as of early April, down from 17.6 percent at the end of 2008. (Editing by Chris Gallagher)

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