by Valerie Parent and Gus Trompiz
PARIS, May 13 (Reuters) - French wheat may face tough export conditions in the coming months as a healthy global harvest reduces demand from key customers while competition intensifies from rival exporters, France's farm office said on Wednesday.
Leading forecasters have projected this year's world wheat crop to be only slightly below the record seen in 2008, and this large crop is expected to include good harvests in North Africa, usually a top destination for French grain, Michel Ferret, head of FranceAgriMer's markets service, told reporters.
Estimates have put the 2009 global wheat crop at 650-660 million euros, compared to last year's record estimated at 680-690 million tonnes.
France is the European Union's biggest wheat producer and exporter, and is expected to export 9.5 million tonnes outside the bloc by the end of the July/June 2008/2009 season, according to FranceAgriMer's projections.
Ukraine, Russia and India could put pressure on French exports at the start of the next campaign by selling large amounts of their grain on the world market, Ferret said.
"Russia is very actively preparing the 2009/2010 campaign. It's launching offensives in all directions," he said, stressing the role of the new state-owned United Grain Company.
INDIAN EXPORTS
After buying large amounts of grain for public stores, Russia could some sell some of this stock for export in order to free up storage capacity, he said, noting trade talk that 2 million tonnes could be released as a first step.
As of May 13, Russia had bought about 7.5 million tonnes of wheat for its intervention stores out of a total of 9.5 million tonnes of grains. [ID:nLC68991]
Russia is notably planning to export wheat to Brazil -- where traders say 500,000 tonnes could be shipped soon after recent contacts between the two countries -- and to other countries via food aid organised with the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organisation, Ferret said.
Neighbouring Ukraine could also be a significant exporter next season as its crop is expected to be substantial and of better quality, even if not as large as last year.
"Producers facing financial problems are also likely to sell quickly," he said, raising the prospect that Ukrainian wheat prices will fall below west European levels.
India is the third country that could squeeze European exports in the coming months as it considers lifting an export ban in view of large wheat and rice stocks, Ferret said.
But in the short term, Indian exports are expected to be confined to neighbouring Pakistan and Bangladesh, unless India introduces export subsidies to make its grain prices more competitive on the world market, he added.
(Editing by William Hardy)