BRUSSELS, April 25 (Reuters) - The shareholders of stricken
financial group Fortis
Karel De Boeck told Belgian business daily De Tijd that the turnout of investors at next week's crucial meetings would be higher than in February, when shareholders voted against the break-up of Fortis and subsequent sale to BNP.
"The larger turnout -- some 20-25 percent -- will probably lead to a small shift to 'yes'," De Boeck said.
At the Feb. 11 meeting, 20.3 percent of Fortis capital was represented.
De Boeck said Fortis was expecting some 3,000 shareholders at its meeting on Tuesday in Ghent, Belgium, and about 800 on Wednesday in Utrecht, the Netherlands, representing 580-600 million shares against 530 million in February.
Then, only investors holding shares at the time of Fortis's break-up in October were eligible to vote. Next week, all shareholders will be able to participate.
"A number of parties have in the meantime been able to buy at a low price. And that's not just speculative hedge funds, but also normal households. But there are also some institutions that have sold, which makes the picture less clear," De Boeck said in De Tijd.
De Boeck noted that financial consultancy RiskMetrics had advised its clients to vote 'yes', which should sway a number of institutional investors.
The position of Chinese insure Ping An <601318.SS>, Fortis's largest shareholder with a 4.81 percent stake, was unknown. It voted 'no' last time.
If approved, BNP would buy 75 percent of Fortis Bank, the Belgian banking business of Fortis that is now in state hands, and 25 percent of Fortis Insurance Belgium from Fortis.
Investors opposed to the deal, such as those represented by Belgian lawyer Mischael Modrikamen and investor activist group Deminor, argue that Belgium should return Fortis Bank in exchange for a stake in Fortis.
De Boeck said this was not realistic.
Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy said last week that there was no chance of further negotiations with either BNP Paribas or Fortis. If Fortis shareholders voted 'no', Fortis Bank would remain in state hands.
De Boeck said a 'no' vote would leave Fortis with 6.86 billion euros ($9.04 billion) in a portfolio of toxic products, instead of 760 million euros under the deal currently proposed. Fortis would then need to borrow 3 billion euros from the state.
"Then we would risk the whole value of the holding in the vehicle of toxic assets," De Boeck said.
Fortis, stretched by its 24 billion euro purchase of the Dutch business of ABN AMRO, was carved up after an 11.2 billion euro cash injection failed to calm investors.
Fortis shares, which had previously been regarded as a "safe" investment, are now little more than a penny stock. (Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop, editing by Mike Peacock)