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FOREX-Dollar slips on growing risk appetite

Published 01/05/2010, 01:19 AM
Updated 01/05/2010, 01:21 AM
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* Dollar under pressure as risk appetite improves

* FX market lacks clear direction until US jobs report on Fri

* Aussie hits 3-week high vs dollar, 2-year peak vs euro

* Dollar/yen extends falls, triggered by stop-loss sales

By Rika Otsuka

TOKYO, Jan 5 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as growing hopes for a global economic recovery encouraged investors to shift funds to riskier assets from the greenback.

The dollar was also under pressure from fund mangers trying to rebuild their portfolios at the start of the year by buying stocks, commodities and higher-yielding currencies.

The U.S. currency extended losses against the yen, triggered by stop-loss orders below 92.10 yen and also below 92.00 yen, traders said. The fall in dollar/yen dragged down yen crosses, which succumbed to profit-taking, they said.

The Australian dollar hit a two-year high against the euro and a three-week high versus the dollar as investors picked up commodity-linked currencies on buoyant gold and oil prices.

"Investors are seeking more risks thanks to better economic conditions," said Tsutomu Soma, senior manager of the foreign securities department at Okasan Securities.

"But whether risk-taking moves will carry on depends on U.S. jobs data due on Jan. 8," Soma said. "Investors feel they need to have the employment data to confirm the U.S. economy is improving solidly."

The median forecast of analysts polled by Reuters on the U.S. Labor Department's monthly payrolls report for December is for a decline of 8,000. However, the predictions ranged widely, from a loss of 80,000 jobs to an increase of 59,000.

The dollar index, a gauge of the U.S. currency's performance against six other major currencies, was down 0.4 percent at 77.203.

The euro was up 0.3 percent from late U.S. trade at $1.4457 after advancing 0.6 percent the previous day.

Risk appetite grew on Monday after data showed Chinese manufacturing increased at its fastest pace on record in December, while U.S. factories marked their best month in nearly four years, boosting confidence in the global economy.

For much of the past year, expectations that U.S. interest rates would stay low for a long time spurred investors to sell the greenback to purchase riskier and high-yielding assets.

But that pattern was interrupted in December on position-closing before the year-end, and as signs of an improving U.S. economy prompted some to believe the Federal Reserve could start to tighten monetary policy in 2010.

Speculators increased bets the U.S. currency has room to rise by going long the dollar for a second straight week to Dec. 29, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Monday.

The value of the dollar's net long position was around $4.76 billion, a big jump from a net long position of $700 million in the prior week, according to Reuters calculations.

The dollar fell 0.8 percent against the yen to 91.75 yen on Tuesday, having dropped from a four-month peak of 93.22 yen hit on trading platform EBS on Monday.

Many cited profit-taking on the dollar's surge from a 14-year through of 84.82 yen struck in late November as being behind Tuesday's fall in dollar/yen, while others said news that Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group plans to raise up to 800 billion yen by issuing new shares has also given a support to the yen.

Traders said the dollar is likely to find support around 91.30 yen -- a 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the greenback's fall from its high in August of 97.79 yen down to the 14-year trough.

Yen crosses were broadly down with the euro dropping 0.5 percent to 132.65 yen, the Australian dollar down 0.7 percent at 83.85 yen and the New Zealand dollar falling 0.8 percent to 67.37 yen.

The Australian dollar rose as far as $0.9164, its highest since Dec. 15, according to Reuters data. It then eased back to $0.9144, up 0.2 percent from late U.S. trade.

Against the euro, the Australian dollar climbed to a two-year high of 0.6346 euros.

Given a rise in commodities, higher equities and the Australian dollar's yield advantage over other currencies, investors feel comfortable about buying the currency, said Yasutoshi Nagai, chief economist at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets.

"The Aussie's rise has further to go," Nagai continued. "Some even say the currency is likely to achieve parity with the U.S. dollar in the long term." (Additional reporting by Satomi Noguchi and Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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