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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: October 10-14

Published 10/09/2011, 10:51 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com - The pound ended the week almost unchanged against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after rebounding from a more than one-year low on the back of stronger risk appetite.

GBP/USD hit 1.5270 on Thursday, the pair's lowest since July 23, 2010; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5559, easing up 0.07% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.5270, last Thursday's low and resistance at 1.5715, the high of September 29.

On Thursday, the pound tumbled to a 14-month low against the greenback after the Bank of England implemented a fresh round of monetary easing measures, amid concerns over weakening economic conditions in the U.K.

BoE policymakers voted to increase the bank’s asset purchase program by GBP75 billion, to GBP275 billion, to shore up the U.K. economy which has come under pressure from government spending cuts, a slowdown in global growth and the deepening financial crisis in the euro zone.

The BoE left interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.5%.

The announcement came after a report on Monday showed that U.K. manufacturing activity rebounded from a 26-month low in September.

However the report said that growth remained below the levels seen at the beginning of the year and that the contribution of the manufacturing sector to the overall economic recovery looked likely to remain “modest, at best” for the remainder of the year.

Sterling trimmed losses, tracking the euro higher after the European Central Bank announced measures to refinance European banks in response to the debt crisis in the euro zone.

The pound added to gains on Friday, rising to a one-week high, after the U.S. Department of Labor said nonfarm payrolls rose by 103,000 in September, far more than the expected 53,000 gain, while payrolls for the previous two months were revised up by a total of 99,000.

But the pound trimmed gains before the close of trade as risk appetite soured after ratings agency Fitch's downgraded Italy and Spain, adding to concerns over the financial crisis in the euro zone.

In the coming week, developments in the euro zone look likely to remain in the spotlight. Meanwhile, investors will be looking towards Friday’s U.S. data on retail sales to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

U.K. reports on manufacturing production and trade balance will also be in focus.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 10

In the U.S., debt markets will remain closed for the Columbus Day holiday, while stock markets will be open as usual.

Tuesday, October 11

The U.K. is to publish official data on manufacturing production, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to release industry reports on retail sales and house prices. In addition, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research is to publish its monthly GDP estimate.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish data on economic optimism.

Wednesday, October 12

The U.K. is to produce government data on claimant count change, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to publish official data on average earnings and the unemployment rate.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting.

Thursday, October 13

The U.K. is to publish official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods over the reported month.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to release its weekly government report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on crude oil stockpiles, the federal budget balance and the trade balance.

Friday, October 14

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to publish official data on import prices and business inventories. In addition, the University of Michigan is to publish preliminary data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Also Friday, the G20 Group is to hold the first day of a two-day summit meeting.

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