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FOREX-Yen slips broadly as short-covering rally fizzles

Published 04/13/2011, 02:21 AM
Updated 04/13/2011, 02:24 AM
BNPP
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* Dollar/yen, cross/yen regain some ground after sell-off

* Yen pressured as short-covering and profit-taking fade

* Dlr/yen support at 200-day MA near Y83.50, then Y83.30

* Euro supported by China's pledge to buy Spanish bonds

* Singapore MAS decision Thursday key for Asia FX - analyst (Updates prices)

By Masayuki Kitano

SINGAPORE, April 13 (Reuters) - The yen slipped on Wednesday as a bout of global risk reduction abated, with some market players looking for fresh opportunities to put on bets against the yen after having booked profits the previous day.

The yen fell against the dollar and dipped broadly on the crosses, giving back some of the gains it made on Tuesday, when it rallied broadly as short-covering gained steam.

Traders said a sell-off in global equities and commodities coupled with an upgrade of the severity of Japan's nuclear crisis had prompted investors to unwind some of the recent one-way yen-funded carry trades, with extended positioning having helped exacerbate the move.

"I don't think anyone is serious about buying yen at this stage. They are covering shorts. It's just a question of reducing positions," said Rob Ryan, FX strategist at BNP Paribas in Singapore, referring to the yen's surge the previous day.

Indeed, the yen has quickly come back under pressure, with the Australian dollar rising 1.2 percent to 88.26 yen . The Aussie dollar regained some ground against the yen after Tuesday's 1.8 percent slide, but still remained well below a 2-1/2 year high just above 90 yen touched on Monday.

The yen has slid broadly over the past several weeks on worries about the economic impact of a massive earthquake and tsunami that hit northeast Japan on March 11, and on strengthening market expectations that the Bank of Japan will lag behind other central banks in raising interest rates.

Such expectations and subdued market volatility have helped put the focus on the yen's appeal as a funding currency for carry trades -- a tactic of selling low-yielding currencies to fund investments in assets with higher yields.

The spike in risk reduction and position unwinding seen on Tuesday across various markets seemed to lose momentum on Wednesday, with MSCI's broad measure of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rising 0.7 percent , clawing back some ground after its 1.7 percent fall on Tuesday.

One event that could affect investor risk appetite is the Monetary Authority of Singapore's policy decision on Thursday, said Ryan of BNP Paribas.

Asian currencies could rise and support risk sentiment if the MAS tightens monetary policy on Thursday, he said.

"We get further risk-on, we get further intervention recycling into euros and Aussie is likely to benefit as well."

But Asian currencies may take a hit if the MAS holds off from tightening monetary policy, Ryan said, adding that such an outcome could cause investors to scale back expectations for further currency appreciation in Asia.

"I think there is the potential for investors to look at Asia and say, 'Is this the beginning of the end of the tightening cycle in Asia?'," Ryan said.

Singapore is expected to tighten monetary policy on Thursday, with the central bank either sanctioning a small, immediate jump  in the local dollar or signalling it will let the currency rise at a faster pace over time, a poll of economists by Reuters showed.  [ID:nL3E7FD0HK]

DOLLAR SUPPORT NEAR Y83.50

The dollar rose 0.7 percent to 84.22 yen after having slid more than 1.2 percent on Tuesday for its biggest one-day percentage drop in four months.

The dollar bounced off support at its 200-day moving average near 83.50 yen. More support lies at 83.34 yen, the 23.6 percent retracement of the dollar's mid-March to April rally, and 83.30 yen, the dollar's March 11 intraday high.

Short-term resistance lies at 84.33 yen, the conversion line on the daily Ichimoku chart, a form of Japanese technical analysis widely used among market players.

"After they booked profits yesterday, positions held by market players who had taken bets against the yen earlier are now pretty square," the customer dealer said. "They are now looking for the proper timing and catalyst to build yen-selling positions again."

The euro last stood at 122.00 yen , up 0.8 percent from late U.S. trade on Tuesday but well below an 11-month high of 123.33 yen hit on Monday.

The euro rose 0.l percent against the dollar to $1.4486 , having touched a 15-month high of $1.4520 on Tuesday on trading platform EBS.

The euro got a lift against the dollar on Tuesday after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said China will carry on buying Spanish sovereign bonds. [ID:nLDE73B12S] (Additional reporting by Ian Chua in Sydney and; Reuters FX analyst Rick Lloyd in Singapore; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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