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FOREX-Yen rises vs high yielders after China data

Published 08/11/2009, 02:13 AM
Updated 08/11/2009, 02:18 AM
UBSN
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* Yen gains sharply vs Aussie, NZ dollar, up across board

* China data not quite as strong as some were looking for

* Dollar also gains vs higher yielders, steady on euro

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The yen climbed across the board on Tuesday, gaining strongly against the Australian and New Zealand dollars as investors trimmed long positions in those currencies after Chinese data showed below-forecast factory expansion.

China's industrial output grew at the fastest rate in nine months in July but fell short of expectations, disappointing some in the market and prompting them to take profits on riskier trades, dealers said.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars, which have been favoured as pro-risk economic recovery trades in the past few months, fell 0.8 percent against the Japanese currency.

"Since the currency market overall has been on a correction phase, it looked at the more negative parts of the data as it needed triggers," said Hideki Hayashi, a global economist at Mizuho Securities.

"Especially the Aussie, which had risen rapidly among the yen crosses, faced more profit-taking than others."

Resource demand from China helped underpin Australian exports even as global trade slumped, and Hayashi said China's data was not in itself negative.

"China and Australia are important partners. And Australia, which has resources, stands out among industrialised nations as it has higher interest rates and its domestic demand is strong," he said.

Traders said the yen's gains gathered pace as the dollar hit stop-loss sell orders at 96.80 yen. It shed 0.5 percent to 96.73 yen, backing off an eight-week high of 97.79 yen set last week.

The Australian dollar dropped 0.9 percent to 80.65 yen, backing off a 10-month high of 82.00 yen set on Monday. It fell 0.4 percent to $0.8343.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.8 percent to 65.14 yen, retreating from the previous session's 10-month peak at 65.90, and shed 0.4 percent to $0.6742.

The euro held steady at $1.4136 but fell 0.4 percent to 136.90 yen.

FED AHEAD Traders said the market was also looking to cover short positions against the dollar ahead of the end of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.

After better than expected U.S. jobs data last week and a sharp rise in the dollar, the market has been trying to ascertain whether the rising risk appetite-falling dollar dynamic which has held for much of this year has started to crumble.

The market has even begun to price in tightening by the Federal Reserve early in 2010. But analysts are wary, noting the dollar had a short-lived climb in early June for similar reasons, with the market speculating that U.S. interest rates would start to rise sooner than expected.

"Whether a paradigm shift is taking place with regards to a loosening in correlation between risk aversion and the U.S. dollar is still too early to call," said Jonathan Cavenagh, a currency strategist at Westpac, Sydney.

Federal Reserve policy makers are expected to hold the fed funds rate at the zero-0.25 percent level but analysts say they could sound more confident about the economy and might lay out a plan for pulling back some of the Fed's quantitative easing policies.

"The scale of job losses is still large. So it will be too early to put an end to the U.S. quantitative easing policy," said Yuichi Hojo, a director in the forex division of UBS. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in Sydney, Kaori Kaneko and Satomi Noguchi in Tokyo; Editing by Michael Watson)

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