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FOREX-Yen rises on doubts about risk rally outlook

Published 08/27/2009, 01:44 AM
Updated 08/27/2009, 01:48 AM
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* Traders cite worries risk asset rally looking stretched

* Falls in Asian shares and oil prices also give yen a lift

* Eyes on impact of China's plan to curb redundant investment

* Sterling hits 6-week low against the yen

By Masayuki Kitano

TOKYO, Aug 27 (Reuters) - The yen rose broadly on Thursday as investors fretted that a rally in risk assets since March may have run ahead of a recovery in the global economy and on worries about the outlook for Chinese shares.

Market players were keeping an eye on China stocks for direction hints, with currency traders citing worries that China's plans to curb industrial overcapacity may have a negative impact on Chinese equities, at least in the short-term.

The broader concern, however, was that a rally in risk assets such as equities and oil since March may have gone too far, traders said.

Such doubts were lending support to the low-yielding yen, which tends to rise against currencies such as the Australian dollar when the global economic outlook worsens or investor risk appetite declines.

"Markets seem to have already priced in various kinds of good news," said Minoru Shioiri, chief manager of FX trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

Although the global economy seems to have got past the worst of its troubles, there are concerns about the outlook and how it will fare once various types of economic stimulus wear off, Shioiri said.

The Australian dollar fell 0.6 percent against the yen from late U.S. trading on Wednesday to 77.39 yen, pulling away from a 10-month high of 82.00 yen hit earlier in August.

The dollar dropped 0.7 percent to 93.64 yen, dipping back towards a one-month low of 93.42 yen hit on trading platform EBS last week.

The euro fell 0.5 percent against the yen to 133.70 yen and edged down 0.1 percent against the dollar to $1.4242.

Sterling slumped to a six-week low of 151.66 yen amid the yen's broad rise. After trimming some losses, sterling was down 0.7 percent on the day at 151.80 yen.

Chinese shares, which have fallen sharply over the past several weeks, dipped 1.2 percent, while Tokyo's benchmark stock index was down 1.7 percent on the day.

A dip in crude oil prices was another factor that held back commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar, helping to push them lower against the yen, traders said.

Analysts have said China's equity market now seems to be driven by technical factors, concerns over share supplies and other domestic factors, rather than concerns about China's economic recovery, which is seen as being on track.

But currency traders cited worries that China's plans to curb industrial overcapacity could have a negative impact on Chinese equities, at least in the short-term.

"As the economies of industrialised nations are struggling, if China puts on the brakes, worries about the global economy will likely increase. This could be a negative factor for shares, which would lead to yen buying," said Ayako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Trust & Banking.

China's cabinet said on Wednesday that it would take steps to curb overcapacity and redundant investment in industries ranging from steel to wind power equipment, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

The market is looking ahead to the second reading of U.S gross domestic product for the second quarter due on Thursday. Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a 1.5 percent contraction rate compared with a 1.0 percent rate of contraction in the first reading.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits for the week ended Aug. 22 will also be released later in the day. (Additional reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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