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FOREX-Yen rises after G7 meeting, shrugs off Japan GDP

Published 02/16/2009, 01:15 AM
Updated 02/16/2009, 04:17 AM

* Yen climbs despite sharp contraction in Japan's Q4 GDP

* Biggest quarterly fall in GDP since 1974

* Eyes on U.S. auto restructuring, housing rescue plans

By Kaori Kaneko

TOKYO, Feb 16 (Reuters) - The yen rose against other major currencies on Monday after Group of Seven finance ministers made no specific reference at their weekend meeting to the Japanese currency's strength.

The yen edged up despite data showing Japan's economy had shrunk sharply in the last three months of 2008, as investors saw the numbers as largely within expected ranges, analysts said.

"Investors have little choice but to continue unwinding risky leveraged-positions as G7 top financial chiefs did not mention the yen's appreciation," said Hideki Amikura, deputy general manager of forex trading at Nomura Trust and Banking.

"Everyone is betting on a further rise in the yen, also because few believe governments can come up with new steps effective enough to turn around the global economy," he said.

Japan's gross domestic product shrank 3.3 percent in October-December or an annualised 12.7 percent, the sharpest fall since the first oil crisis in 1974.

Forecasts in a Reuters poll had been for a 3.1 percent contraction on the quarter and an annualised drop of 11.7 percent.

The dollar was at 91.75 yen, down 0.1 percent from late U.S. trading on Friday. The greenback fell as low as 91.43 yen on trading platform EBS after the GDP announcement.

The euro fell 0.8 percent to $1.2760 and dropped 1.1 percent to 117.10 yen.

Sterling fell 0.8 percent to $1.4237 after the G7 also made no mention of weakness in the pound.

In the run-up to the meeting in Rome, there had been speculation that the finance chiefs might mention the rise in the yen and the fall in sterling.

G7 members promised to make fighting recession and stabilising financial markets their highest priority.

They softened their tone on the Chinese yuan while saying they expected it to keep appreciating, but did not single out other currencies. The language of the communique was almost identical to their last statement in October.

"There is no mention of pound weakness, though reports suggest Germany in particular would have liked to have included one," said Matthew Strauss, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

"Our perception is that the UK authorities are more than happy to see the exchange rate fall and it is highly unlikely that they would have sanctioned a statement that included any reference to it."

The pound also came under pressure after Lloyds Banking Group unveiled hefty losses related to its HBOS subsidiary, underpinning risk aversion and keeping investors wary of high-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

EURO WORRIES

On Friday, data showed the euro zone economy had contracted at a record pace in the last quarter of 2008, boosting expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates at its March meeting.

Traders also noted media reports about financial troubles in Eastern Europe and Russia kept investors worried about the euro, given the heavy exposure of European banks to that region.

Standard & Poor's Rating Services warned on Monday it could cut the foreign and local sovereign ratings of Ukraine in the coming months because it doubted the country's ability to implement the IMF's loan agreement.

"In addition to the weak GDP report in the euro zone, worries about losses among banks in Europe ahead of the earnings season are expected to emerge, which would put downward pressure on the euro," said Yuji Saito, head of the FX sales department at Societe Generale.

Investors were looking for cues this week from the United States including its housing bailout and automaker restructuring plans.

The housing rescue plan is due to be announced by President Barack Obama on Wednesday and is expected to break new ground by helping troubled borrowers even before they miss a mortgage payment.

General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC face a Tuesday deadline to submit new restructuring plans under a $17.4 billion federal bailout. (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in Sydney and Rika Otsuka in Tokyo; Editing by Brent Kininmont)

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