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FOREX-Yen retreats but keeps firm tone; Germany in recession

Published 11/13/2008, 04:49 AM
Updated 11/13/2008, 04:52 AM
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* Yen falls vs dollar, euro as stock markets recover poise

* Structural risk aversion intact; Germany enters recession

* Sterling hits 6-1/2-year low vs dollar at $1.4807

* RBA intervenes to prop up sliding Aussie

(Recasts, changed dateline, byline, adds quotes, updates prices PVS TOKYO)

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The yen fell against the dollar and euro on Thursday with wary investors finding respite from deleveraging as European shares steadied, but global economic worries remained, keeping overall risk aversion intact.

Recession fears became a reality in Germany as gross domestic product in the single currency zone's biggest economy contracted by 0.5 percent, putting it in recession for the first time in five years.

The dollar kept a firm tone, pushing the euro towards recent lows and sterling to a 6-1/2 year trough further below $1.50.

Meanwhile, wariness toward risk battered the Australian dollar, which fell to a two-week low of $0.6348 in late New York trade the previous day, forcing the Australian central bank to intervene and prop up the currency early on Thursday.

Analysts said that the dollar and yen's overall upward trajectory should stay on track as the U.S. Treasury backed away from using its $700 billion financial bailout to buy bad mortgages.

Uncertainty about how the U.S. government plans will revive bank lending and dismal news from corporations shook tentative hopes for some semblance of financial market stability.

"In a structural sense, people remain quite risk averse. The market is very concerned about the real economy fall out," said Geoff Kendrick, senior currency strategist at UBS in London.

"We've had already this morning confirmation that Germany is in recession and we get the euro zone figures tomorrow, so things are not looking very rosy," he added.

By 0915 GMT, the euro was up 1.5 percent on the day at 120.18 yen. Earlier in the global session it briefly fell as low as 117.65 yen, the lowest since Oct. 28.

The dollar recovered from the day's low of 94.53 yen to 95.84 yen, up 1 percent on the day. Asia-based traders said short-term speculators who bought the yen from around 97 yen sold the Japanese currency back to book profits.

EUROPE IN TURMOIL

Sterling was down 0.1 percent at $1.4912, having earlier fallen to a 6-1/2 year low at $1.4807.

The floundering pound gave way to intense pressure after the Bank of England said on Wednesday that the British economy will shrink sharply next year, bolstering expectations for further aggressive rate cuts.

The BoE's indication of more interest rate cuts added to expectations for further monetary easing by the European Central Bank, sending the euro to a two-week low against the dollar earlier in the global session at $1.2389 -- closing in on recent 2-1/2-year lows.

Calyon senior currency strategist Daragh Maher said in a note to clients there is likely to be further weakness for the euro in the coming days.

"Already we have seen German GDP this morning which was much weaker than expected at -0.5 percent Q/Q and showed the second consecutive quarter of negative growth, confirming a technical recession," he said.

"Other euro zone economies are set to follow suit in the coming days."

Later in the day, markets will look for hints on whether the European Central Bank might step up its monetary policy easing as several ECB policymakers including President Jean-Claude Trichet are expected to speak at a banking conference in Frankfurt.

(Reporting by Veronica Brown; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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