FOREX-Yen remains near 15-yr high vs dollar

Published 09/09/2010, 09:26 AM
Updated 09/09/2010, 09:28 AM

* Dollar near 15-year lows vs yen seen vulnerable

* Euro in sight of 9-yr low against the yen

* Aussie hits 4-month high on solid jobs data

(Recasts, adds quote, updates prices; changes dateline, previous LONDON and byline)

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The yen remained near a 15-year high against the dollar on Thursday as conflicting messages from Japanese policymakers led investors to bet Japanese authorities were not ready to intervene.

The dollar pared losses against the yen after U.S. initial weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level in two months and a separate report showed the U.S. international trade deficit narrowed more than expected in July.

But while both reports eased concerns about the pace of the U.S. economic recovery, the main focus lay on Japan and to a lesser extent problems in the euro zone banking system.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Thursday that the ministry was conducting simulations on forex intervention, but the yen hardly budged as the market still thinks Japan is unlikely to intervene until the dollar falls near 80 yen.

Noda's comments were also somewhat undermined after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he did not discuss currencies and monetary policy at a government meeting.

"Markets try always to move to what we have called "the obscene number" before turning around and given that the all-time high for the Yen is just below 80 it seems reasonable to assume that we shall at least visit that level before turning in the other direction," said analyst Dennis Gartman, from the Gartman Letter.

In early New York trade, the dollar had fallen 0.2 percent to 83.74 yen, within sight of the 15-year low of 83.34 yen hit on trading platform EBS on Wednesday. The low using Reuters data was 83.32 yen.

Options traders said there was good demand for yen calls in the 1- to 2-month bracket, but yen puts were more popular in shorter dates, suggesting investors are hedging their bets about possible intervention.

The euro is near a nine-year low against the yen hit in late August. The low on Reuters data was 105.41 yenand on EBS 105.44. It was last little changed at 106.71 yen.

DOWNWARD BIAS FOR EURO

The euro rose against the dollar but gains were capped by concerns about the fragile euro zone banking system.

The euro was up 0.2 percent against the dollar at $1.2741, just off the session peak of 1.2746. The session low was $1.2665.

The euro was bolstered after ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch said the euro zone was on the brink of a sustainable recovery and the ECB was likely to discuss removing some support measures at its December meeting.

And the U.S. data also helped risk appetite.

"The July improvement in the trade balance is a positive for the third quarter data outlook and diminishes somewhat the fears of a drastic slowdown in the United States," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist, Forex.com, Bedminster, New Jersey. "And the jobless claims is an even more significant move in the right direction. Overall both reports are risk positive."

Thursday's euro advance followed losses on Wednesday after European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark told German lawmakers that German banks were undercapitalized, according to a participant.

"Confidence is evaporating in the euro zone banking system, particularly for Portugal, Ireland and Greece, and supporting the system will require government debt to rise to unsustainable levels. That is what the market is concerned about," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London.

The Australian dollar extended gains as a barrier was taken out at $0.9250, hitting a four-month high on strong jobs data and raising speculation of a rate rise.

Interest rate futures were pricing in a 24 percent chance of a rate increase, compared to just 7 percent before, and this was seen supporting the Australian dollar in the near term.

The Australian dollar was last up 0.8 percent at 0.9266

(Additional reporting by Steve C Johnson in New York and Neal Armstrong in London) (Reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)

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