FOREX-Yen near 15-yr high vs dlr; euro hurt by bank woes

Published 09/09/2010, 08:05 AM
Updated 09/09/2010, 08:08 AM
EUR/JPY
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* Dollar near 15-year lows vs yen, seen vulnerable

* Euro hits low of 105.97 yen, in sight of 9-yr low

* Aussie hits 4-month high on solid jobs data

(Updates prices)

By Tamawa Desai

LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The yen hovered near a 15-year high against the dollar on Thursday as conflicting messages from policymakers prompted traders to bet Japanese authorities were not yet ready to intervene.

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Thursday that the ministry was conducting simulations on forex intervention, but the yen hardly budged as the market still thinks Japan is unlikely to intervene until the dollar falls near 80 yen.

Noda's comments were also somewhat undermined after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he did not discuss currencies and monetary policy at a government meeting.

By 1130 GMT, the dollar had fallen 0.3 percent to 83.66 yen , within sight of the 15-year low of 83.34 yen hit on trading platform EBS on Wednesday.

"Comments from Japanese authorities indicated they are not in a hurry to intervene, so new lows should be tested," said Roberto Mialich, currency strategist at Unicredit in Milan.

Options traders said there was good demand for yen calls in the 1- to 2-month bracket, but yen puts were more popular in shorter dates, suggesting investors are hedging their bets about possible intervention.

The one-week dollar/yen risk-reversal, the premium required to hold a put or a call, traded marginally in favour of yen puts, traders said.

The euro fell to 105.97 yen, nearing a nine-year low of 105.44 yen hit in late August. It was last down 0.2 percent at 106.42 yen.

DOWNWARD BIAS FOR EURO

The euro remained pressured as investors fretted about the fragile euro zone banking system.

The single currency fell on comments late on Wednesday from European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark, who told a meeting of German lawmakers that German banks were undercapitalised, according to a participant.

"Confidence is evaporating in the euro zone banking system, particularly for Portugal, Ireland and Greece, and supporting the system will require government debt to rise to unsustainable levels. That is what the market is concerned about," said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

The euro was down slightly against the dollar at $1.2710. Bids were seen at $1.2680 and $1.2630, traders said. A near-term target was seen at the 100-day moving average of $1.2664.

The euro revived a bit after ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch said the euro zone was on the brink of a sustainable recovery and the ECB was likely to discuss removing some support measures at its December meeting.

But the bias remains to the downside, Unicredit's Mialich said. "The $1.2660 level may hold, but at the end of the day, there is not much room for recovery."

Talk of massive options with a strike price of $1.2600 set to expire later in the day could dictate trade, one London-based trader said.

The Australian dollar extended gains as a barrier was taken out at $0.9250, hitting a four-month high of $0.9261 on strong jobs data and raising speculation of a rate rise.

Interest rate futures were pricing in a 24 percent chance of a rate increase, compared to just 7 percent before, and this was seen supporting the Aussie in the near term.

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