🔺 What to do when markets are at an all-time high? Find smart bargains, like these.See Undervalued Stocks

FOREX-Yen jumps, Aussie tumbles as speculators cut positions

Published 04/12/2011, 02:47 AM
Updated 04/12/2011, 02:48 AM
BNPP
-
STT
-
4280
-
BIG
-

* Sell-off in yen and dollar halts as market books profits

* Fed officials sound dovish, negative for dollar

* Extended Aussie, Canadian dollar rally finally pauses

* Sterling awaits UK inflation data for direction

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, April 12 (Reuters) - The yen rose sharply on Tuesday and was the biggest gainer among major currencies over the past 24 hours as profit-taking on bets against it gathered momentum after Japanese authorities upgraded the nuclear crisis to a par with Chernobyl and several strong aftershocks hit Japan.

Declines in oil prices also prompted investors to exit positions in commodity-linked currencies.

The U.S. dollar, like the yen, found some reprieve as speculators locked in profits from positions taken against the low-yielding currency in favour of the euro and red-hot commodity plays such as the Australian dollar.

Traders said both the yen and the dollar will likely resume sliding, however, after the profit-taking has run its course.

"When there are uncertainties, you just close your positions. At the moment, what a lot of people have is yen short positions so the yen is being bought back. But I don't see any change in the yen's downtrend," said a trader at a U.S. bank.

The yen had been sliding after the Group of Seven (G7) countries sold the currency in last month's rare joint intervention -- their first in more than a decade.

Expectations that the Bank of Japan will keep policy loose to help the economy rebound from last month's devastating earthquake and tsunami, even as other central banks tighten to avert inflation, also had made many market players comfortable selling the yen, since higher yielding currencies tend to be favoured by investors in the long run.

As speculators bought back the yen, especially against higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar and the euro, the yen gained about 1.0 percent against the dollar, about 1.2 percent against the euro and 1.6 percent against the Australian dollar.

The U.S. dollar fell to 83.80 yen per dollar , off a seven-month high of 85.54 set on Thursday. It has managed to bounce near its 200-day moving average at 83.51 yen, although a break of that could pave the way for a test of 81.98 yen, a 38.2 percent retracement of its rise from a record low set last month.

The euro slipped to 120.80 yen , down from Monday's peak of 123.33. The Australian dollar eased to 87.50 yen , having scaled a high of 90.02, its strongest since September 2008, hit on Monday.

"Aftershocks in Japan hampered overall risk sentiment, helping JPY to be the top performer overnight, even amid reports that the estimate of the severity of the Fukushima accident could be increased," said David Watt, strategist at RBC.

Japan raised the severity of its nuclear disaster to the highest level on Tuesday, citing accumulated levels of radiation released. [ID:nL3E7FB2TZ]

The U.S. dollar had the upper hand against other currencies, gaining 0.6 percent against the Aussie, 0.5 percent against the Canadian dollar and 0.2 percent against the euro.

EYEING INFLATION

The dollar index <.DXY >, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, posted a slim gain to stand at 75.111, having found support after plumbing a 16-month low of 74.838 on Friday.

The euro retreated from Friday's 15-month high around $1.4485 to $1.4400, but traders say the January 2010 high of $1.4582 remains in play.

The Australian dollar fell to $1.0433, off a 29-year peak of $1.0585 set Friday. The Canadian dollar dropped to C$0.9600 per U.S. dollar , compared with a 3 1/2-year high of C$0.9526 hit last week.

But dovish comments from key U.S. Federal Reserve officials the previous day indicate that the U.S. Federal Reserve is not in any hurry to tighten its policy, likely limiting the greenback's upside potential in the near future.

Two of the Fed's most powerful officials, Janet Yellen and William Dudley, said on Monday that the U.S. central bank should stick to its super-easy monetary policy, arguing that inflation is not a threat and unemployment remains too high. [ID:nN11296347]

"With the Fed's accommodative policy intact for some time, USD weakness is likely to persist. Thus, the small correction seen across the board indicates more profit-taking than the start of a trend," BNP Paribas analysts wrote in a note.

Many traders also expect the yen to stay under pressure from low yields, after the knee-jerk reaction to the aftershocks has passed.

Kimihiko Tomita, head of foreign exchange at State Street Global Markets in Tokyo, said the yen's fall in the past month had been largely driven by speculators as many institutional investors typically need some time to assess their strategies after a big incident.

"We've seen unexpected factors such as Libya and the disaster in Japan. At a time like this, when there were sudden big changes, it is speculators and not investors who can quickly move," Tomita said.

"Foreign investors have bought Japanese shares for many years. If they start selling them, that could push down the yen further," Tomita added.

But Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp, said the yen could gain further against a broadly weak dollar if the G7 finance ministers' meeting shows a gap between Japan and other G7 partners on the G7 commitment to yen.

"Japan wants continued commitment to the yen but other G7 countries may want to limit joint intervention to a one-day event. If that picture is brought home to market players, the yen could test 80 yen," says Uno, one of the most dollar-bearish analysts.

Markets are next eyeing inflation data, with Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom among those releasing reports on Tuesday. U.S inflation data is due on Thursday and Friday.

In Britain, the annual consumer price inflation rate is forecast to hold steady at a 28-month high of 4.4 percent, more than double the central bank's target.

Another upside surprise would fuel talk of an imminent rate hike, giving sterling a fillip. The pound was down 0.3 percent at $1.6284 , having reached a 15-month high of $1.6430 on Friday. (Additional reporting by Ian Chua in Sydney, Natsuko Waki in Tokyo; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.