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FOREX-Yen hits 5-month high vs dollar, risk aversion up

Published 07/13/2009, 09:41 AM
Updated 07/13/2009, 09:48 AM
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* Yen gains on receding risk appetite

* Yen hits 5-mth high vs US dollar, 8-wk high vs Aussie

* Commodity-based currencies also hit by oil price fall

* Japan upgrades economic view for 3rd straight month

(Updates prices, adds comment, changes dateline, byline)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, July 13 (Reuters) - The yen hit a five-month high against the U.S. dollar on Monday as anxiety about U.S. corporate earnings added to fears that any economic recovery this year may prove slight.

An upgrade in Japan's growth forecast also helped the yen, which was coming off its best week against the dollar since October, though a poor showing by Japan's ruling party at Tokyo elections ahead of an August general poll added to uncertainty.

Lower oil prices lifted the dollar against commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said that though a global economic recovery still faces significant risks, there was a "good chance" the U.S. and other leading economies would begin growing over the next two quarters.

Activity was subdued as summer holidays thinned trading desks. Analysts said traders were being cautious even as some of the biggest U.S. firms are expected to show they are recovering from the crisis.

"All the big banks, save Citi, are seen having positive earnings in the second quarter ... but at the same time, the market wants to sell risk this week," said Lauren Rosborough, senior currency strategist at Westpac in London.

Risk aversion prompts traders to buy the yen and dollar, which are often used to finance trades in stocks, commodities and higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar, which hit an eight-week low against the yen.

The U.S. dollar hit a five-month low of 91.73 yen on electronic trading platform EBS, before recovering some ground to 92.28 yen, down 0.3 percent. The Japanese ruling party's loss in a Tokyo assembly election on Sunday raised speculation that the party may lose national elections in August, further dulling investor appetite for risk.

The euro fell 0.1 percent to 128.75 yen but rose 0.2 percent against the dollar to $1.3953 as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet sounded a bit more upbeat about euro-zone growth for the rest of 2009.

Traders said euro options due to expire Monday were helping to limit euro gains. IFR said options worth about 400 million euros were set to expire at $1.40 and $1.4005.

Sterling fell 0.5 percent to $1.6112.

Whether investor optimism and appetite for higher-yielding currencies recovers this week will depend on U.S. earnings, with Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup Inc all set to report.

"This week there is heavy focus on the U.S. earnings season, and investors will want to see that any recovery for major companies is revenue-based and not cost-cutting based," said James Hughes, a CMC Markets analyst in London.

Minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting and a Bank of Japan meeting, due for release later in the week, will be closely watched.

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