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FOREX-Yen gains, dollar edges up as risk tolerance fades

Published 07/06/2009, 01:58 PM
Updated 07/06/2009, 02:00 PM

* Yen, dollar gain on rising risk aversion

* Weak U.S. jobs data sours outlook on U.S., global growth

* July 8-10 G8 meeting eyed for FX diversification debate

* U.S. services sector shrinks at slower pace (Updates prices, adds comment, changes byline)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - The yen gained broadly on Monday and the dollar also edged up as investors nervous about the global economic outlook shunned risk and took shelter in currencies perceived to be safest in times of subpar growth.

The dollar hit a five-week low against the yen but briefly touched a two week-high against the euro as fallout from last week's grim U.S. jobs data unnerved investors who had bet on an improving world economy.

When risk aversion rises, investors cut holdings of stocks and higher-yield currencies, such as the Australian dollar, then buy back dollars and yen that were used to finance the trades.

"Belief was building that we would see a straight-line recovery, but a lot of that optimism is coming out of the market in a big way today," said Mark Frey, head trader at Custom House, a currency services firm in Victoria, British Columbia.

"So it's a classic risk-aversion move, with global equities coming off and commodities down, causing commodity currencies to take it on the chin while boosting the dollar and yen."

The dollar was down 0.9 percent at 95.12 yen, near a five-week low of 94.66 yen touched earlier. The euro hit two-week lows against the dollar and yen. It was last down 0.9 percent at 132.82 yen but wiped out earlier losses to trade flat against the greenback at $1.3958.

Sterling fell 0.5 percent to $1.6265 and 1.1 percent to 154.72 yen, while the commodity-linked Australian dollar lost 0.4 percent to $0.7938.

G8 SUMMIT ON HORIZON

Data showing the U.S. service sector shrank at a slower pace in June failed to stop the overall move away from risk, and analysts said traders were coming to terms with seeing recent economic data undershoot expectations.

Just before last week's long U.S. holiday weekend, data showed U.S. employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, more than economists had expected, while the jobless rate rose again to 9.5 percent.

"It appears that last week's gloomier U.S. jobs picture has provided a wake-up call for those dreaming about a global recovery and a return to business as usual," said Andrew Wilkinson, analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut.

John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets in New York, said, "people are reassessing their views of the economy here and abroad. Risk aversion is the driving force."

One potential hurdle for the dollar could come later this week if a G8 meeting in Italy features discussion about diminishing the dollar's role as world reserve currency.

Though any diversification of central bank reserves away from the dollar would take many years to materialize, investors are on alert after several Chinese officials said the world should look to displace the U.S. currency.

The dollar received some support, however, when China's vice foreign minister said over the weekend the U.S. currency would remain dominant for "many years to come."

China is the world's biggest holder of U.S. Treasury debt and has some $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, with some 70 percent or so thought to be held in dollars. (Additional reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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