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FOREX-Yen gains, dollar edges up as risk aversion rises

Published 07/07/2009, 02:01 PM
Updated 07/07/2009, 02:08 PM
MFG
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* Yen rises as risk aversion remains high

* Sterling falls on weak UK factory orders

* Euro losses capped by German factory data

* Market wary of Q2 earnings (Updates prices, adds comment, changes byline)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - The yen rose on Tuesday as uncertainty about the global economic outlook and forthcoming U.S. corporate earnings increased the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese currency.

Sterling fell as weak industrial output data reinforced doubts about a UK recovery. The euro dipped against the dollar, but losses were capped by a surprise increase in German factory orders that initially pushed it to a session high above $1.40.

When risk aversion rises, investors often cut holdings of stocks and higher-yield currencies and buy back the yen and dollars that were used to finance the trades.

"We've been getting very mixed signals, with some positive data and some very poor data, so it's extremely difficult to pinpoint direction," said Fabian Eliasson, vice president of currency sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in New York.

"As a result, people are backing out of high-yield assets and into the yen and dollar. Now, the focus will turn to corporate earnings as the main driver for the market."

The dollar was last down 0.4 percent at 94.95 yen while the euro fell 0.6 percent to 132.44 yen and 0.2 percent to $1.3946, according to Reuters data.

Sterling dipped to the day's low just above $1.61 after data showed UK manufacturing output fell 0.5 percent in May, confounding expectations of a 0.2 percent rise. It last traded down 0.8 percent at $1.6148.

"The risk is clearly that the 'green shoots' are turning dry," said Michael Klawitter, senior currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt.

EARNINGS, G8

The Australian dollar was down 0.2 percent at $0.7955 after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates at a record low 3 percent on Tuesday and left the door open to more cuts.

Traders are bracing for second-quarter U.S. corporate earnings, which will be released in coming weeks. Analysts said poor results, especially from financial institutions, would likely crank up dollar demand.

"If bank earnings disappoint in any way or the S&P breaks crucial levels, traders will probably start reducing long positions in (high-risk currencies) and the dollar could be bid more," said Chris Turner, currency strategist at ING in London.

Analysts were also keeping an eye on this week's Group of Eight leaders summit that starts in Italy on Wednesday.

China, Russia and Brazil have said they will push their view that the world needs to start seeking a new global reserve currency as an alternative to the dollar, though they admitted such a shift would take time.

A draft of the communique obtained by Reuters made no reference to the issue.

U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin did not discuss oil prices or the dollar in Moscow on Tuesday, according to a U.S. official. (Additional reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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