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FOREX-Yen falls to lowest in nearly 6 mths vs dollar, euro

Published 04/06/2009, 01:59 AM
Updated 04/06/2009, 02:08 AM

* Risk appetite rises as Asian stocks gain on economic hopes

* Signs of yen carry trade creeping back - analyst

* Little impact from North Korea rocket launch

By Satomi Noguchi

TOKYO, April 6 (Reuters) - The yen hit its lowest levels in nearly six months against the dollar and the euro on Monday as investors' risk appetite grew, with Asian stocks climbing on hopes the global downturn may be nearing its bottom.

Traders said a recovery in emerging market assets, buoyed by G20 steps to help developing economies last week, added to investors' appetite for riskier and higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

"The yen seems to be becoming the easiest to secure in the market now, compared with the dollar and euro. A move may be emerging in which speculators use the yen to fund investments in other currencies and assets," said Mitsuru Saito, chief economist at Tokai Tokyo Securities.

"We can probably say a mini yen carry trade is back," Saito said.

Carry trades are when investors sell a low-yielding currency to buy higher-yielding assets and they were hugely popular among Japanese retail investors earlier in the decade.

Part of the Japanese currency's rally as the global financial crisis escalated last year was driven by buying back of yen used in such trades as investors exited positions in riskier investments.

But analysts say Japanese retail investors are not returning to the trade en masse just yet as the economic environment still holds plenty of uncertainties.

The dollar rose as far as 100.93 yen on trading platform EBS, its highest since Oct. 21, before edging back to 100.72 yen, up 0.4 percent from Friday.

A move just above 101.00 would be technically significant as it would be a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its decline from a peak in 2007 to its 13-year low in January.

The euro reached 137.05 yen on EBS, the highest since Oct. 20, before retreating to 135.54 yen, up 1 percent.

One trader said part of the reason for the yen's sharp drop was a sense in the market that some central banks may be near bottom in the rate-cutting cycle after investors sensed strong hesitation in the European Central Bank last week when it set rates at a record low but with a smaller cut than expected.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut rates when it holds its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday but the decision is seen as a close call, with a Reuters poll on Friday showing 13 of 21 analysts expecting no change.

DOLLAR ALSO TAKES A STEP BACK

North Korea's launch of a rocket that passed over Japan on Sunday provoked international outrage but traders said the impact on financial markets in the region was limited as the outcome was largely in line with expectations.

"The market is continuing its trend to sell the yen on higher share prices, while a recovery in emerging markets is encouraging market players to buy higher-yielding currencies against the yen," said a trader at a Japanese bank.

The dollar also faced selling pressure, except against the yen, as views that the U.S. economy may have found a bottom led investors to reduce holdings of the greenback as a safe haven.

But some analysts warn hopes of an economic recovery may be premature, with the run-up in stocks merely a bear market rally.

Data on Friday showed the U.S. economy lost 663,000 jobs in March but investors took the figure as less dire than many had feared and it did little to dampen improved risk appetite.

The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's performance against six major currencies, fell 0.4 percent to 83.823.

The euro gained 0.6 percent to $1.3568.

Sterling rose above $1.4900 to its highest in two months, driven by gains against the yen and up 0.6 percent on the day. It climbed as high as 150.82 yen, a five-month peak, after piercing technical resistance just above 150.00.

The New Zealand dollar jumped more than 2 percent at one stage to a five-month high above 60 yen, and the Australian dollar gained 1.3 percent to a six-month peak of 72.74 yen, according to Reuters data. (Additional reporting by Yoshiko Mori and Charlotte Cooper, editing by Chris Gallagher)

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