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FOREX-Yen falls as stocks rally, record EZ GDP fall hits euro

Published 02/13/2009, 08:23 AM
Updated 02/13/2009, 08:24 AM
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* Yen falls as global shares rise; dlr at 91.70 yen

* Record euro zone GDP fall hits euro; at $1.2820

* Sterling jumps on concern G7 may discuss its weakness

By Kylie MacLellan

LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The yen weakened on Friday as hopes of a U.S. government programme to subsidise mortgages boosted world stock markets, while data showing the deepest ever economic contraction in the euro zone hit the euro.

Sterling also rallied as investors squared market positions ahead of the weekend on concerns that Group of Seven finance chiefs may discuss the currency's recent weakness, even though they're keen to avoid upsetting troubled financial markets with squabbles over exchange rates.

The euro fell around a cent from intraday highs to below $1.2850 after the euro zone recession data boosted pressure for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by half a percentage point next month to a record low 1.5 percent.

"The fall in euro area GDP is unprecedented," said Jurgen Michels, European economist at Citigroup in London.

"To prevent an ongoing substantial undershooting of its inflation target, we expect the ECB to cut rates by 50 basis points in March, and we expect a further reduction in rates to 0.5 percent by mid-year," he said.

By 1300 GMT the euro was down 0.2 percent on the day at $1.2837, having earlier hit a high of $1.2942.

It was down almost 2 percent against the British pound at 88.45 pence and was also down against the Swiss franc and Swedish crown.

The euro rose against the yen, however, up 0.75 percent to at 117.70 yen, and the dollar rose 0.9 percent to 91.67 yen, according to Reuters data.

The dollar and yen, which often show an inverse correlation to investors' risk appetite, lost ground to higher-yielding currencies as global equities recovered ahead of the G7 meeting in Rome and a long weekend in the United States.

European shares were up roughly 2 percent, buoyed by the latest U.S. plan which, in a major break from existing aid programs, would seek to help homeowners before they fall into arrears, sources familiar with the plan told Reuters.

G7 IN FOCUS

Markets welcomed the news that the Obama administration may unveil a broad plan to put a floor under the housing market. A rising wave of U.S. mortgage delinquencies has saddled the global banking system with big losses that have led banks to recoil from lending, choking economies around the world.

Attention now turns to the G7 meeting in Rome. Analysts will be looking to see how much sterling's recent slide on world currency markets features in discussions.

Analysts said the bleak euro zone GDP figures had also raised concerns that G7 leaders may discuss the pound's recent weakness against the euro.

French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde last month called for Britain to do something about its currency as France worried that its businesses will lose out to cheaper British goods and services just when recession is spreading across the industrialised world.

"There's a mixture of the poor GDP data and some short-covering ahead of G7 in the sense that the bad set of euro zone data might put the UK authorities under pressure at G7 to do something about the weaker pound," said Investec chief economist Philip Shaw.

Sterling rallied off one week lows hit on Thursday, gaining 1.9 percent against the dollar at $1.4527.

Looking forward, the increasing premium demanded for insuring UK and U.S. government debt posed downside risks for the dollar and sterling, ING FX strategist Tom Levinson said.

Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Services said late on Thursday that the triple-A credit ratings of both the U.S. and Britain are "being tested" by the strains facing the global economy, while countries such as France and Germany are proving more resistant.

The comments pushed the cost of protecting debt issued by the British government to an all-time high and by the U.S. to a near record high.For analysis on the effect of sovereign default risk on currencies see.

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