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FOREX-Yen down, stg up on Moody's, data; U.S. data eyed

Published 12/11/2009, 04:03 AM
Updated 12/11/2009, 04:06 AM

* Cross/yen rises on short-covering, data, firmer stocks

* Sterling gets lift after comments from Moody's analysts

* U.S. retail sales, consumer sentiment figures eyed

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By Jamie McGeever

LONDON, Dec 11 (Reuters) - The yen weakened and sterling rose on Friday after analysts at ratings agency Moody's said UK and U.S. sovereign credit ratings were not under threat at the moment, helping support investors' risk appetite.

Solid Chinese economic data also encouraged investors to unwind long yen positions as the year-end approached, a move backed by a corresponding rise in global equity markets.

Whether or not that trend continues could depend on U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence later in the day. Further signs of recovery could bolster risk appetite and put added downward pressure on the yen, analysts said.

But the rise in appetite for so-called riskier assets on Friday was not particularly striking.

The dollar's trade-weighted value was little changed, and currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars that are closely correlated with risk and economic growth weakened against the dollar, although they rose against the yen.

"We've had a slight move down in the yen, and risk is back on. But it's a bit difficult to get too excited," said Niels Christensen, currency strategist at Nordea in Copenhaghen.

At 0845 GMT the dollar was up 0.7 percent on the day at 88.80 yen and the euro was up 0.9 percent at 131.00 yen.

The euro was flat against the dollar at $1.4735, with traders citing options-related activity from reserve managers keeping it within a tight $1.4700-$1.4750 range.

Christensen at Nordea said investors are reluctant to buy the euro in large amounts following the ratings downgrade for Greece and outlook cut for Spain this week.

Sterling drew some support from the Moody's analysts' comments that while Britain's borrowing and debt levels could threaten its triple-A rating over the next few years, it would not be right away.

The pound was up 0.3 percent against the dollar at $1.6325 and the euro was down 0.2 percent at 90.30 pence. Sterling hit a near eight-week low below $1.62 on Wednesday on concern about Britain's precarious fiscal position.

Moody's said earlier this week it saw no immediate threat to the ratings of the 17 nations it rates triple-A, although they would face a battle next year to manage their debt burdens.

The dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six major currencies, was little changed at 76.00.

US CONSUMER IN FOCUS

The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose about half a percent on the yen but struggled more against the dollar. The Aussie dollar was flat at $0.9165, and the kiwi fell a third of a percent to $0.7261.

On the data front, Chinese industrial output growth in November jumped to its strongest since June 2007, underlining the economy's brisk recovery and reassuring investors watching the Asian giant.

U.S. retail sales for November are due at 1330 GMT and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for December at 1455 GMT. Both will be watched for clues about the strength of consumer demand.

Economists in a Reuters survey expect retail sales to rise 0.7 percent, compared with a 1.4 percent increase in October.

"We expect a return to a 'normal' reaction -- i.e. good U.S. data is good for the dollar. In case of a positive surprise, euro/dollar would therefore continue to ease ahead of the weekend," said FX analysts at Commerzbank in a note to clients.

The dollar jumped last Friday on surprisingly strong U.S. jobs figures, posting its biggest one-day rise against the yen this year.

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