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FOREX-Yen crosses drop; Jakarta blasts, bank results eyed

Published 07/17/2009, 01:54 AM
Updated 07/17/2009, 01:56 AM
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* Cross/yen falls as exporters sell dollar/yen, euro/yen

* Jakarta blasts send rupiah down

* Market looking ahead to U.S. bank earnings

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, July 17 (Reuters) - The yen rose broadly on Friday, sending higher-yielding currencies lower, as Japanese exporters sold foreign currency and as explosions in hotels in Jakarta and caution before more U.S. bank earnings hurt risk appetite.

The Indonesian rupiah fell 1 percent to 10,230 to the U.S. dollar after news that explosions at two Jakarta hotels killed nine people, but pared early losses as state-controlled banks stepped in to support the currency, traders said.

Majors such as the euro and Australian dollar, which has been bought as a risk and recovery trade against the low-yielding yen, were already falling in early Asian business after failing to best peaks set on Wednesday, and traders said Japanese exporters were selling.

With U.S. earnings still coming out and bank results due later, analysts and traders said appetite for risk had already started waning earlier in the session and they were divided on whether the Jakarta blasts had affected major currencies.

"The blasts have added to this direction in terms of risk trades coming off," said Mitul Kotecha, head of FX strategy at Calyon in Hong Kong, but added it wasn't a big move.

The euro was down 0.5 percent on the day at 132.27 yen, above the day's low at 131.88 yen set after news of the blasts but below Wednesday's one-week high of 133.40.

The Australian dollar fell 0.5 percent to $0.8000 and 0.8 percent to 74.91 yen, after dipping as far as 74.69 yen.

The dollar eased 0.3 percent to 93.66 yen.

"Some exporters who had been aiming to secure a dollar/yen rate of 100 yen and euro/yen of above 135 yen have brought down their sell orders," said a trader for a major Japanese bank.

It was not clear why exporters decided to bring down their offers at this point, he said, but some may be frustrated that dollar/yen and cross/yen hadn't risen further.

The dollar dipped to a five-month low of 91.73 yen in July and its rise stalled at 94.46 this week -- right around a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the dollar's fall from its high in June of 98.90 yen down to the five-month trough.

It hit a six-week low at 79.131 against the basket of six currencies on Thursday, pressured by bank earnings and an headline improvement in U.S. weekly jobless claims, but rose 0.2 percent on Friday to 79.370.

SHARES AND BANKS

Currency markets have been watching stock markets closely in the past few months as a barometer of investor confidence and with earnings season underway, the next test will be reports later on Friday from Citigroup and Bank of America.

Better-than-expected quarterly earnings from Goldman Sachs and Intel earlier in the week helped boost share markets and lifted hopes about an economic recovery.

Still, JPMorgan reported a surge in consumer credit losses, showing a pullout from recession still has a long way to go, and Citigroup and Bank of America were expected to post relatively weaker performances, discouraging risk trades, one trader said.

"Unlike the Goldman Sachs results no one is talking about them feverishly," noted Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney.

There was some focus on new Japanese investment trusts featuring overseas investment being launched on Friday.

Eight new mutual funds that will invest in overseas assets attracted a total of 23.9 billion yen ($255 million), according to data compiled by Reuters.

Daiwa SB Investments is launching six that will target emerging market bonds, with investors having the option of taking currency risk in the Australian dollar, Brazilian real, New Zealand dollar, South African rand, and Turkish lira.

Those six funds gained 11.4 billion yen, while a Daiwa Asset Management mutual fund that will invest in equities in Japan and emerging countries attracted 12.5 billion yen.

A trader for a Japanese brokerage house said such amounts were too small to have much impact on the yen, especially since some of the flows were unlikely to appear during Asian trading hours. (Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano; Editing by Chris Gallagher)

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