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FOREX-Yen, dollar gain as risk rally pauses

Published 08/04/2009, 07:46 AM
Updated 08/04/2009, 07:48 AM
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* Yen, dollar gain as equities, oil prices turn lower

* Falls in equities, oil encourage profit-taking in risky FX

* Aussie edges lower from 10-month highs after RBA

* Some caution ahead of ECB, BoE decisions, US jobs data

(Adds quote, update prices, changes byline)

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The yen and the dollar gained on Tuesday as falls in equity and oil prices encouraged investors to take profits on some of the recent sharp gains in higher risk and commodity-based currencies.

Investors' underlying positive stance towards risky assets remained intact, however, and the euro continued to hover not far from Monday's 2009 high against the dollar.

European shares fell 0.8 percent, correcting lower after hitting a 9-month high, while S&P 500 futures were down 0.7 percent, pointing to a lower start on Wall Street after the S&P 500 index topped the 1,000 mark on Monday.

Analysts said this helped the yen and the dollar recoup some of their recent heavy losses, which accompanied a jump in risk appetite as investors became increasingly confident of an improvement in the global economy.

"We have seen some consolidation and some profit-taking in higher risk currencies, but the bias is still to the upside for risk," Barclays Capital currency strategist Adarsh Sinha said.

"We saw a big, big moves yesterday and on Friday and relative to that the reversal in the dollar and the yen today has been small," he said.

Better-than-expected second quarter company results, brighter manufacturing reports from the U.S., Europe and China, and stimulative policy measures have boosted hopes the global economy may have bottomed out from its worst recession in decades.

But analysts noted some caution ahead of key events this week, including policy decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday and U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday.

By 1127 GMT, the euro was down 0.2 percent against the dollar at $1.4385, though still not far from a nine-month high of $1.4445 hit on Monday.

Traders said some options with a strike price of $1.4450 were set to expire later in the day, which may be capping moves.

Technical analysts see the euro rising to $1.4720, hit in mid-December last year, and possibly pushing higher.

The yen was the main outperformer, however, with the dollar down 0.6 percent at 94.73 yen and the euro down 0.8 percent at 136.25 yen.

The dollar earlier fell some two yen from the day's high to 94.37 yen, as traders said selling accelerated after stop-losses were hit at 94.50 yen.

The dollar index was up slightly at 77.682, off a 10-month low of 77.415.

COMMODITY FX FALL

Falls in the prices of oil and metals such as copper on Tuesday weighed on commodity-based currencies like the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, which had all hit multi-month highs in early trade, buoyed by the rally in risky assets.

The Australian dollar relinquished gains made after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged as expected but dropped its easing bias, backing expectations for a rate hike by the end of the year..

The Australian dollar was down 0.3 percent from late U.S. trade at $0.8395 after rising to $0.8471 on the Reuters dealing system, the highest since late September.

"The end of the Aussie bull run will happen when the RBA actually raises rates, as investors take their money off the Aussie and on currencies where rates will rise next," said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho in London.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.3 percent to $0.6658 after earlier rising to $0.6712, its highest in 10 months. The U.S. dollar was also up 0.3 percent against the Canadian dollar at C$1.0684.

Sterling was steady on the day against the dollar at $1.6935 after it touched a new nine-month high of $1.7005 earlier in the session.

(Additional reporting by Tamawa Desai in London; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

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