FOREX-US dollar tumbles vs euro as risk appetite rises

Published 09/13/2010, 04:45 PM
Updated 09/13/2010, 04:48 PM
EUR/JPY
-

* US dollar's worst day vs euro since July 1

* Chinese data boosts demand for commodity currencies

* No yen intervention, focus shifts to Japan party race

* Longer-term concerns linger, Swiss franc up vs dollar (Adds details, updates prices)

By Nick Olivari

NEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar saw its biggest one day fall against the euro in two months on Monday as strong Chinese economic data boosted investor confidence in the global economic recovery, encouraging money flows into riskier currencies.

In addition, the new bank capital requirements, announced by the Basel Committee of regulators on Sunday, were not as onerous as expected, leaving investors in an optimistic mood. For details on bank rules, see[ID:nLDE68B0BP]

New data Chinese data showed factories ramped up production last month and money growth beat expectations, backing the view that the markets outlook had grown too gloomy.[ID:nTOE68A00H]

The euro rose about 1.6 pct to around $1.2892, its biggest daily gain since July 1, before closing around $1.2873 .

The high-yielding Australian dollar reached a five-month peak of $0.9362 . Australia is a top supplier of raw materials for China.

"There's no doubt that risk appetite has returned, and the strong Chinese data reduces the risk of a global double-dip recession," said Matthew Strauss, senior strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

The euro also rose 0.9 percent to 107.67 yen as the euro got a boost after the European Commission said it expects the euro zone economy to grow almost twice as fast in 2010 as previously expected. [ID:nLDE68C0KA]

Analysts said a target for the euro was $1.2920 which has proved the top of the range for the summer on several occasions, but longer-term worries about the health of the euro zone banking sector and euro zone government debt may limit euro gains.

Similarly, concerns about anemic U.S. economic growth are keeping demand up for safe haven currencies like the Swiss franc. The dollar fell 1.2 percent to 1.0074 Swiss francs on Monday.

"People are getting short-term encouragement from recent data but still have long-term concerns," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex in Bedminster, New Jersey.

The U.S. dollar index <.DXY>, measuring the greenback's performance against six major currencies, was last down 1.0 percent at 81.834.

Further falls in the index could drive it to re-test lows seen earlier this month around 81.58/50 and even potentially test the 80.745 August low over coming weeks, said BNP Paribas in a note to clients.

YEN SLIPS, CHINA IN FOCUS

The dollar fell 0.7 percent to 83.61 yen , still near a 15-year low around 83.34 yen on electronic trading platform EBS . The low recorded by Reuters data is 83.32.

That kept investors on alert to see whether Japanese authorities would intervene to weaken the yen ahead of a ruling party leadership vote on Tuesday.

If challenger Ichiro Ozawa ousts Prime Minister Naoto Kan, analysts expect the dollar to rise against the yen, as Ozawa has advocated strong intervention to curb the yen's strength.

Traders said bids from Japanese importers around 83.50-80 yen were offset by exporter offers reported above 84.20 yen.

Speculators raised bets slightly in favor of the yen last week, according to CFTC data, while three-month risk reversal was at -1.9, according to Reuters composite data, still with a bias to dollar puts and yen calls. [ID:nN10229952]

Both indicate there is still a bullish bias on the yen.

Were Japan to intervene against the yen, it is expected to act alone, with U.S. authorities more focused on persuading China to allow more yuan appreciation.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was due to discuss China's exchange rate practices before Congress this week.

In remarks published in the Wall Street Journal on Monday, he said China has made "very, very little" progress on letting the exchange rate reflect market forces. [ID:nTOE68B01F]

China loosened the yuan's peg against the dollar in June, but the dollar has only fallen about 1.0 percent since then. (Reporting by Nick Olivari and Steven C Johnson)

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