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FOREX-US dollar slips as market in modest risk-seeking mode

Published 10/27/2009, 09:38 AM
Updated 10/27/2009, 09:39 AM
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* Dollar slips, upward momentum loses traction

* Euro/dollar recovers losses, but stays below 14-mth high

* US GDP data, Norges Bank decision seen risk-positive (Recasts, updates prices, adds comment, U.S. data; changes dateline, previous LONDON, byline)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Tuesday, as investors waded back into higher-yielding currencies ahead of this week's data that is expected to show the U.S. economy emerged out of recession in the third quarter.

An expected interest rate hike decision from the Norges Bank added further pressure on the dollar.

Analysts said the anticipation of the U.S. data and the Norges Bank announcement, both indications that the global economy is on the mend, contributed to the positive risk scenario.

"After the dollar's rally and a pullback in risk assets yesterday, the market is looking to get back in and maintain the risk-seeking environment," said Amelia Bourdeau, senior currency strategist, at UBS in Stamford, Connecticut.

"I think the Norges Bank announcement on Wednesday is one of the key catalysts. The Norges bank is expected to hike interest rates and the market is looking at that as a sign that a global recovery is underway."

The U.S. economy, meanwhile, is expected to grow 3.3. percent in the third quarter, according to a Reuters poll. That follows strong growth rates in some Euro zone countries, China, and Japan.

With few major economic data and events on Tuesday, the dollar hovered in narrow ranges in quiet trade.

In early New York trading, the ICE Futures dollar index, a measure of its performance against six other major currencies, fell 0.2 percent to 75.927, but stayed above a 14-month low of 74.94 hit last week.

Analysts said the market is aware that short positions in the dollar have piled up in past weeks, signaling the possibility of a rebound in the U.S. currency.

Still, they added that the trigger for such a turnaround had yet to materialize.

"We've had a good, long run in dollar weakness so the market needs to take profits," said Peter Frank, currency strategist at Societe Generale in London.

"The market is positioned for a dollar bounce back but we need a catalyst for that ... We didn't see one on Monday."

The euro was up slightly at $1.4878, but remained well below $1.5064 hit on Monday, its highest since August 2008. The single euro zone currency, a proxy for risk appetite, gained after data showed U.S. home prices rose for a fourth straight month.

The euro stumbled nearly a full percent against the dollar on Monday, and some analysts said the euro's retreat from its 14-month peak had been driven by the single currency's inability to sustain its rally above the key $1.50 region.

The high-yielding Australian dollar inched up 0.2 percent at US$0.9180, while sterling continued to gain, rising 0.4 percent to $1.6377.

The Norwegian crown hovered near a one-week low against the euro, as traders trimmed some long positions in the Nordic currency before the Norges Bank is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday.

Analysts said the crown may resume its broad rally if the Norges emphasizes improving fundamentals and increasing inflation risks as reasons for hiking rates.

(Additional reporting by Naomi Tajitsu in London) (Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)

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