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FOREX-US dollar recovers as euro momentum falters

Published 03/01/2011, 03:54 PM
Updated 03/01/2011, 03:56 PM

* Bernanke offers no hint about monetary policy outlook

* Euro momentum falters as fails to break Feb high

* Sterling hits 13-month high vs dollar on rate view (Recasts, adds quote, details, updates prices)

NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar recovered from a 3-1/2-month low against a basket of other major currencies on Tuesday as the euro again failed to breach resistance at its 2011 high.

Analysts expect the euro to stay supported ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting, at which the ECB may signal a willingness to hike rates. But after the currency peaked at $1.3855, investors found little incentive to push it higher.

Trading was volatile. however, particularly after Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke offered no hint that the U.S. central bank was considering tightening its loose monetary policy.

"We need to get through $1.3860 to signal another leg higher," said Win Thin, global head of emerging markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York,

The dollar index <.DXY>, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, fell to 76.735, its weakest level since early November, before recovering to 77.053, up 0.2 percent from the prior close.

Most of the gains in the index came from declines in the euro.

The euro was last down 0.2 percent at $1.3773 , pushing nearly a cent below the one-month high of $1.3857 hit on trading platform EBS on Monday. The session low posted at $1.3762 on EBS, a clear break of support at the $1.3775 level, the 23.6 percent retracement of the euro's rise from the Feb. 22 low to the Feb. 28 high.

"The hurdle from here is whether or not ECB President Trichet will deliver a more hawkish tone," said Camilla Sutton, senior currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto, referring to expected remarks by ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet after a policy meeting on Thursday.

"The risk is that the ECB fails to deliver and the euro weakens. However, we expect that the fundamentals have shifted enough that President Trichet will not disappoint."

Traders reported stop losses above $1.3860, which is around euro/dollar's 2011 high set on Feb. 2 and a break above which would mark the highest since early November. Further upside targets include $1.3948, around the 76.4 percent retracement of the euro's fall from November to January, and $1.3957, the 200-week moving average.

Bernanke's comments also weakened the euro against the dollar.

In testimony before Congress, Bernanke said downside risks to U.S. growth had diminished and said for the first time that the risk of deflation was now "negligible." But he said job growth remains far too anemic and provided no clue whether the Fed was considering cutting short its $600 billion bond-buying program, designed to stimulate the economy. For more see [ID:nLDE72024L].

"Overall, (Bernanke's) tone is somewhat balanced but it's encouraging to see that the risk of deflation is moderating according to the Fed," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington. "That's one of the keys that'll be necessary for the Fed to wind down its quantitative easing."

Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.2 percent to 81.94 yen , with traders citing early heavy buying of dollar/yen by Japanese exporters. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar rose 0.1 percent to 0.9297 .

Traders said uncertainties in the Middle East and North Africa remained high, and if tensions escalate, investors could again buy the Swiss franc and yen, the two currencies that have tended to benefit the most when risk aversion rises.

Sterling initially rallied to a 13-month high of $1.6330 against the dollar after stronger-than-expected UK housing data stoked expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates before the Fed. Those gains eased in New York trading on general dollar strength.

The Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. currency after the Bank of Canada kept its main interest rate at 1 percent and gave no signal it plans to push the rate up soon. The greenback last traded up 0.3 percent against the loonie at C$0.9745, after falling to a three-year low of C$0.9684 . [ID:nLDE7201U4] (Reporting by Nick Olivari and Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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