FOREX-US dollar rallies as euro again fails to break $1.4000

Published 10/26/2010, 11:45 AM
Updated 10/26/2010, 11:48 AM
EUR/SEK
-

* US dollar up as euro fails to break $1.4000

* UK GDP lifts pound; Swedish crown falls on Riksbank

* Yen up; Japan finmin says to take steps on FX if needed

(Updates prices, adds detail, adds comment)

NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose as the euro again failed to hold above the $1.4000 level in the prior session leaving investors wary of betting against the greenback on Tuesday.

The Swedish crown and sterling were also actively traded after the Swedish central bank, which raised interest rates as expected, said future rate increases would be more gradual than expected, [ID:nLDE69P0NR] while the British economy grew more than expected.

Overall however, uncertainty over the extent of quantitative easing measures the Federal Reserve may take next week kept foreign exchange trading in predictable ranges.

Euro/dollar "has struggled to break sustainably above $1.40," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

"We still expect this will be the next move, however if it is unable to do so soon, we might see some temporary weakness before markets have enough conviction to push it above this level," she said.

Midway through the New York session, the euro fell 0.7 percent to $1.3860 after failing to close above $1.4000 on Monday. The euro has support at 1.3860, its low on Friday, and its 21-day simple moving average at $1.3866.

The euro fell to a session low after a report showed U.S. consumer confidence rose slightly in October but then recovered though it was still down on the day. [ID:nN26128177].

The move back below $1.4000 was viewed as significant given the euro had failed several times in recent days to break through and hold that level.

"I haven't heard that $1.40 is any more significant than any other number," said Tom Levinson, FX strategist at ING in London. "From the fundamental perspective the market mayu want to wait for the Fed and until third quarter GDP numbers are out."

The market expects the Fed to opt for more quantitative easing at its policy meeting next week, but some easing is seen priced into an already weak dollar. How much easing the Fed decides on and how gradually it will implement is uncertain, keeping investors edgy about building more bearish bets on the dollar.

The advance release of U.S. third quarter gross domestic product data is on Friday.

Should the euro break through $1.4000, resistance comes at $1.4442 which is the 78.6 percent retracement of the move from the $1.5141 high in November 2009 to the $1.1876 low in June 2010 said Dean Malone said Dean Malone, a currency director at Compass FX in Dallas, Texas.

Large option barriers, including a one-touch option barrier at $1.4215 that is set to expire on Wednesday may also mute euro/dollar gains until expiration.

15-YEAR LOW

The dollar rose against the yen, edging away from 15-year lows after Japan's finance minister Yoshihiko Noda warned the government would "act decisively" in currency markets if needed. [ID:nTOE69O09F]

His comments pushed the greenback back above 81 yen, with traders citing buying from Japanese life insurers and banks, among others, on the view that Japan may intervene if the dollar nears 80.00 yen.

"Japan has pointed out quite clearly that they will intervene in dollar/yen if it falls too quickly and the market is aware there is no easy one-way bet on dollar/yen downside," said Stephan Maier, currency strategist at Unicredit in Milan.

The dollar was up 0.6 percent at 81.24 yen . It hit a 15-year trough at 80.41 yen on Monday on electronic trading platform EBS , taking it near its record low of 79.75 yen, struck in April 1995.

Against a basket of currencies <.DXY> the dollar was up 0.6 percent at 77.552. It has support around 76.00-10, just below its October 15 low of 76.144 while resistance is at 78.40.

Sterling was a clear outperformer, rising to a one-week high at $1.5897 after figures showed the UK economy grew 0.8 percent in the third quarter, twice as much as economists had forecast. [ID:nLDE69P0VZ] Sterling extended gains after S&P rating agency raised its outlook on the UK to stable from negative. [ID:nWLA6239]

The Swedish crown fell broadly with the euro rising more than 1 percent to a peak of 9.3414 crowns . (Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer in London) (Reporting by Nick Olivari)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.