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FOREX-US dollar falls on rate view after Bernanke comments

Published 03/01/2011, 12:14 PM
Updated 03/01/2011, 12:16 PM

* Bernanke offers no hint about monetary policy outlook

* Euro targets 2011 high of $1.3862 and $1.3950 area

* Sterling hits 13-month high vs dollar on rate view (Updates prices, adds quote, details)

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell to a 3-1/2-month low against major currencies on Tuesday and could fall further after Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke offered no hint that the U.S. central bank was considering winding down its loose monetary policy.

After briefly dipping below $1.38, the euro rebounded and remained on track to test key resistance around $1.3862, the yearly high. Analysts expect the euro to stay supported ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting, at which the ECB may signal a willingness to hike rates.

In testimony before Congress, Bernanke said downside risks to growth had diminished and said for the first time that the risk of deflation was now "negligible." But he said that job growth remains far too anemic and provided no clue whether the Fed was considering cutting short its $600 billion bond-buying program designed to stimulate the economy.

"There is nothing that Bernanke has said that is going to change the market's view that the Fed is going to be a laggard in the tightening cycle relative to most G10 central banks," said Alan Ruskin, global head of Group of 10 foreign exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank in New York.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, fell to 76.735, its weakest level since early November.

The euro last rose 0.1 percent to $1.3817, near a one-month high of $1.3857 hit on trading platform EBS on Monday. The euro fell as low as $1.3795 after Bernanke's comments, before recovering.

"Overall, (Bernanke's) tone is somewhat balanced but it's encouraging to see that the risk of deflation is moderating according to the Fed," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington. "That's one of the keys that'll be necessary for the Fed to wind down its quantitative easing."

Traders reported stop losses above $1.3860, which is around euro/dollar's 2011 high set on Feb. 2 and a break above which would mark the highest since early November. Further upside targets include $1.3948, around the 76.4 percent retracement of the euro's fall from November to January, and $1.3957, the 200-week moving average.

On the downside, support lies around $1.3775, the 23.6 percent retracement of the euro's rise from the Feb. 22 low to the Feb. 28 high.

"The hurdle from here is whether or not ECB President Trichet will deliver a more hawkish tone," said Camilla Sutton, senior currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto, referring to expected remarks by ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet after the policy meeting on Thursday.

"The risk is that the ECB fails to deliver and the euro weakens. However, we expect that the fundamentals have shifted enough that President Trichet will not disappoint."

The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 81.86 yen, with traders citing earlier heavy buying of dollar/yen by Japanese exporters. The euro rose 0.2 percent to 113.10 yen.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was flat at 0.9280 and the euro rose 0.1 percent to 1.2827.

Traders said uncertainties in the Middle East and North Africa remained high, and if tensions escalate, investors could again buy the Swiss franc and yen, the two currencies that have tended to benefit the most when risk aversion rises.

Sterling rallied to a 13-month high against the dollar of $1.6330, after stronger-than-expected UK housing data stoked expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates before the Fed.

The Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. currency after the Bank of Canada kept its main interest rate at 1 percent and gave no signal it plans to push the rate up soon. The greenback last traded up 0.3 percent against the loonie at C$0.9737, after earlier falling to a three-year low of C$0.9684. (Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer in London; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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