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FOREX-U.S. dollar rallies from six-week lows vs euro

Published 07/21/2009, 12:29 PM
Updated 07/21/2009, 12:32 PM
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* Bernanke gives less bullish outlook on U.S. economy

* Caterpillar posts strong Q2 earnings

* Sterling down, Bank of Canada holds rates steady (Updates prices, adds quotes)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, July 21 (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded from six-week lows against the euro on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a cautious assessment on the U.S. economy, which curbed risk appetite.

Risk appetite had improved the last few sessions after a string of stronger-than-expected U.S. corporate earnings for the second quarter.

Bernanke, in his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, said unemployment was likely to remain high into 2011, which he warned could undermine consumer confidence and derail a recovery.

Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers in Greenwich, Connecticut, said Bernanke's "cautious tone" threw the dollar a lifeline, especially against the euro, which had earlier climbed to its highest level since early June.

"His bottom-line assessment that the U.S. economy is still nowhere near ready for a policy reversal flew in the face of equity market investors who have been busily discounting a return to growth," said Wilkinson.

In midday New York trading, the dollar fell 0.9 percent against the yen to 93.33.

The euro turned lower against the dollar, falling 0.2 percent to $1.4197 and erasing gains that took it to six-week highs earlier in the day at $1.4277, according to Reuters data.

The ICE futures' dollar index, a measure of the greenback's value against a basket of six currencies, was little changed at 78.872. Earlier, the index had fallen to 78.591, its lowest since early June.

FEW SURPRISES IN BERNANKE TESTIMONY

Overall, Bernanke's remarks provided few surprises, analysts said, especially after his essay in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal, in which he said the Fed does have an exit strategy plan from the U.S. central bank's quantitative easing measures.

But Bernanke's comments on unemployment and consumer spending undercut the euro and high-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Earlier in the day, investor appetite for risk was evident in equity markets, especially after Tuesday's generally strong earnings. Heavy equipment maker Caterpillar, for instance, posted a second-quarter profit and gave an upbeat earnings outlook for 2009.

Some analysts, however, sounded a note of caution on recent U.S. earnings.

"I would say that the earnings beats were the slightest of margins. There were a couple of misses on the revenue side," said Jacob Oubina, senior currency strategist, at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

"So a lot of the earnings generated in the second quarter were due to cost-cutting measures, mainly on the employment side. The sustainability of the beats as we head into the fourth quarter is therefore questionable," Oubina said.

The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, retraced losses against the Canadian dollar to trade flat on the day at C$1.1063. The greenback had earlier fallen to session lows at C$1.0967 after the Bank of Canada left interest rates at a historic low of 0.25 percent and gave an upbeat economic forecast. ID:nBAC000314.

Sterling underperformed, trading down 0.8 percent at $1.6418 GBP=> after public finances data showed the worst June performance on record, with net debt standing at 56.6 percent of gross domestic product. (Editing by Leslie Adler)

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