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FOREX-U.S. dollar drops as Fed remarks, housing data weigh

Published 11/23/2009, 12:00 PM
Updated 11/23/2009, 12:03 PM
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* U.S. dollar falls on dovish comments from Fed's Bullard

* ECB's Trichet, Paramo talk about exit strategy

* Dollar hits six-week low vs yen; high-yielders rise

* U.S. existing home sales surge 10.1 percent in Oct. (Updates prices, adds comment)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The dollar declined broadly on Monday after a Federal Reserve official affirmed expectations that interest rates would stay low for some time and strong U.S. housing data dampened the currency's safe-haven appeal.

Low rates would limit returns on many U.S. investments, prompting investors to diversify out of the currency and seek other riskier assets with higher yields.

An industry report showing that U.S. existing home sales jumped to a more than 2-1/2-year high in October further spurred the appetite for risk and boosted higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

"The (housing) data adds to bearish U.S. dollar momentum, as stronger-than-expected home sales data is bullish for equity markets," said George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "That decreases risk aversion and increases broad-based dollar weakness.

Comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard on Sunday supported expectations for low interest rates and weighed on the dollar. Bullard said the Fed should keep alive its mortgage-related assets purchase program beyond a planned end date to help stimulate the economy.

Amelia Bourdeau, senior currency strategist at UBS in Stamford, Connecticut, said comments such as Bullard's added to investors' appetite for risk.

ECB TO END QE AHEAD OF FED?

In contrast to the Fed's stance, both the European Central Bank's president, Jean-Claude Trichet, and executive board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez Paramo discussed plans for the ECB to exit its quantitative easing strategy.

On Monday in Madrid, Trichet said as the situation becomes more normal, the focus in the medium term calls for a "gradual and timely phasing out of these measures."

Paramo said on Sunday the ECB could detail plans for phasing out its quantitative easing at the December meeting.

Their remarks have boosted the view the ECB is likely to exit its easing strategy ahead of the Fed, underpinning the euro against the dollar.

In midday New York trading, the euro was up 0.7 percent at $1.4967.

Analysts also said moves were exacerbated by thin liquidity with Tokyo markets shut and ahead of Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

"We're right back to strength in the Dow and weakness in the dollar versus the euro, so I won't be surprised if we camp back just under the $1.53 area in the euro by the end of the month," said Ryan Gibbons, managing director at brokerage house GPS Capital Markets in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Against the yen, the euro rose 0.9 percent to 133.42 yen.

The euro was earlier supported after a survey showed the euro zone's service sector grew at its fastest pace in two years in November, suggesting an economic recovery will continue in the fourth quarter, albeit at a slower rate.

The ICE Futures dollar index dropped 0.7 percent to 75.124, off a two-week high of 75.879 hit on Friday.

Against the yen, the dollar was flat at 88.95 yen after earlier hitting a six-week low of 88.58 yen, according to Reuters data.

Selling in the dollar came as oil rose and gold prices hit record highs. Higher gold and oil prices boosted riskier commodity-linked currencies, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars each climbing more than 1 percent against their U.S. counterpart. (Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson; Editing by Leslie Adler) ((gertrude.chavez@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223 6322; Reuters Messaging: gertrude.chavez.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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