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FOREX-U.S. dollar climbs versus yen in thin trading

Published 12/28/2009, 01:58 PM
Updated 12/28/2009, 02:03 PM

* Yen falls broadly, further losses seen

* Dollar mixed, direction uncertain in thin trade

(Updates prices, adds quotes, adds byline)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Dec 28 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the yen but slipped against some major currencies on Monday in holiday-thinned trading, as investors pondered about the outlook for the greenback after a recent rally.

Trade was light with many market participants in Europe off between Christmas and the New Year. Markets in the United Kingdom were also closed for a public holiday.

In Japan, Monday was the last working day of the year for many companies, which resume business on Jan. 4.

"The dollar has recovered a bit from its losses last Thursday, but I wouldn't put too much into the dollar's gains today," said Vassili Serebriakov, senior currency strategist, at Wells Fargo in New York.

"Liquidity is very light and the news flow is quite thin and there's really been no real direction for the dollar at the moment. We have to wait for next week to get any sense as to where the dollar is going."

There also appeared to very little market impact from news over the holiday weekend of an attempt to blow up a passenger plane flying to Detroit.

The focus for many though is whether the dollar will continue to rise next month after its rebound from a 14-year low against the yen in November.

The ICE Futures' dollar index, a gauge of its value against six major currencies, has gained nearly 4 percent so far this month, on pace for its best monthly performance since February. On Monday, the index was at 77.600, off a 3-1/2-month high of 78.449 set last week.

The dollar has risen broadly in recent weeks on optimism the U.S. economy may be poised for better growth in 2010, said Andrew Bekoff, chief investment officer for Family Office Group in New York. Gains against the euro in particular were bolstered by concerns euro zone economies won't recover as quickly, he said.

In early afternoon trading, the euro was little changed versus the dollar at $1.4391.

The dollar was up 0.4 percent at 91.54 yen, not far off a two-month high set last week. The euro was up 0.3 percent at 131.71 yen.

The yen fell broadly as investors took advantage of quiet markets to position themselves ahead of a likely pick-up in activity in the new year.

Analysts have also pointed to the robust correlation between dollar/yen and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, currently at 93 percent, according to Reuters data. U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply this month and are likely to see a further increase this week given Treasury supply of around $118 billion in a thin market.

Ten-year yields are about 12 basis points away from revisiting the 3.95 percent high for the year, while those of two-year Treasuries were up more than 1.0 percent even though the outlook on U.S. interest rate has not changed.

Analysts believe that if 10-year yields make a push for the 4 percent handle, dollar/yen could get above 92.

Dollar/yen has of late become more sensitive to Treasury yields and interest rate expectations because the currency pair has lagged major crosses during this month's rally in the greenback when investors started to price in a stronger U.S. recovery.

The dollar has risen 1 percent against the yen this year so far after falling roughly 19 percent in 2008.

Other factors that could also move the dollar this week include Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index for October and U.S. consumer confidence for December on Tuesday.

(Additional reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by Andrew Hay)

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