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FOREX-Sterling jumps on BoE minutes, dollar hobbles

Published 10/21/2009, 10:07 AM
Updated 10/21/2009, 10:09 AM

* Euro breaks above $1.50 for first time in 14 months

* Sterling jumps on BoE minutes; Kiwi up on RBNZ comments

* Markets see Fed lagging other banks in tightening

(Recasts, updates prices, adds comment, changes byline, dateline)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a one-month low against sterling on Wednesday while the euro broke above $1.50 for the first time in 14 months as expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain very low weighed on the greenback.

Sterling rose after Bank of England meeting minutes suggested officials are not ready to expand an emergency asset buying program and had "differences of view" on inflation.

Analysts said that suggests central banks beyond the United States are considering winding down programs that have flooded their economies with money now that global growth has improved, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to follow suit.

Sterling rose 1.4 percent to $1.6614 , and the heavy dollar selling helped push the euro to $1.5003 before it eased to $1.4982, up 0.3 percent.

The Fed has extended more than $2 trillion of credit to the financial system, and Chairman Ben Bernanke has said interest rates should remain low for some time. Low rates make the dollar less attractive to investors than higher-yielding currencies more closely correlated with economic recovery.

"Not everyone is serious about raising rates yet, but the fact that the BoE may not add any more money to the system has the market looking for the same type of rhetoric from the Fed," said Boris Schlossberg, head of FX research at GFT Forex.

"Part of the reason the dollar is hobbling along, trying to keep its footing, is that people think the Fed is handcuffed until the labor market stops contracting," he said.

Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said "the downside (for the euro) is limited and we cannot rule out another attempt at the ($1.50) level."

The dollar, however, was up 0.4 percent against the yen to 91.00 yen . Against a basket of currencies, the dollar <.DXY> fell 0.4 percent to 75.233, near a 14-month low of 75.103 hit on Tuesday.

BOE TAKES FOOT OFF THE GAS

Minutes from the last BoE policy meeting showed officials voted unanimously to continue a 175 billion pound ($287 billion) quantitative easing program, surprising some who feared the bank would expand the program's size and scope.

The minutes also showed differences of view among some members about inflation risks, suggesting some were wary of adding to asset purchases for fear of stoking inflation.

"The minutes shifted the balance of risks in favor of a pause in asset purchases in November, which the pound has reacted to," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

The New Zealand dollar also rose 0.4 percent to $0.7530 after central bank chief Alan Bollard said a strong currency was not necessarily an obstacle to raising interest rates [ID:nSYD348934].

Earlier this month, Australia became the first developed country to raise rates since the crisis began, and that has helped push the Australian dollar to 14-month highs this week.

In China, the State Council said economic recovery had been "consolidated," a shift in rhetoric that some analysts say may be a first hint that officials are at least thinking about how to normalize loose monetary and fiscal polices [ID:nPEK213103]

But late Tuesday, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen said the time for monetary tightening in the United States was still some way off. [ID:nN20459802].

(Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer in London, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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