🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

FOREX-Risk aversion, Bernanke comments boost dollar

Published 11/17/2009, 11:52 AM
Updated 11/17/2009, 11:54 AM
GC
-

* Dollar off 15-mth low as mkt digests Bernanke comments

* Euro once again unable to hold above $1.50

* Soft U.S. PPI gives more ammo to low-rate argument

* China's Hu makes no mention of yuan after Obama meeting

(Updates prices, adds detail, comment)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded on Tuesday from a 15-month low after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's rare comments on the currency spurred traders to trim long-term bets against the greenback.

Bernanke surprised investors on Monday when he said the central bank was "attentive to implications of changes in the value of the dollar," although he reiterated that interest rates would remain exceptionally low for an "extended period."

Some took his remarks on the dollar, which is usually the purview of Treasury, to mean the Fed fears depreciation could stoke inflation. [ID:nL9477567].

"The Fed probably recognizes the last thing it needs is for dollar weakness to spill into (higher) oil prices and force it to tighten policy prematurely," said Alan Ruskin, strategist at RBS Securities in Greenwich, Connecticut. "They don't want to give the idea that they're taking chances with the currency."

That helped drive investors to cut exposure to higher-yield currencies and assets and had the euro flirting with its biggest one-day decline against the greenback since August.

It was last down 0.9 percent at $1.4838 after rising as high as $1.5015 on Monday, where traders said profit-taking and options-related selling capped its rise.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet also spoke on currencies on Tuesday, reiterating his view that a strong dollar is in the U.S. interest and that the euro was never intended to be a reserve currency. [ID:nLH595206].

The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 89.35 yen , off a one-month low, and 1.1 percent to 1.0183 Swiss francs .

The greenback also benefited as investors trimmed exposure to risk, with equity, oil and gold prices all lower, gaining sharply against commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars .

FED RHETORIC, OBAMA IN CHINA

The dollar is still in a long-term decline, analysts said, and weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation and industrial output data offered little reason for the Fed to rush into higher interest rates.[ID:nOAT004361] and [ID:nWEQ003582]

Bernanke's remarks were probably aimed more at "smoothing" the dollar's decline than reversing it, said Societe Generale strategist Peter Frank. He added that traders were "a little uncomfortable" being long of euros above $1.50.

Bernanke's comments on Monday came as U.S. President Barack Obama visited China, although few expect the trip to result in any near-term changes in Beijing's foreign exchange policy.

Chinese President Hu Jintao did not mention the yuan after meeting Obama, who only said he was pleased with China's commitment to move toward a more market-oriented exchange rate. [ID:nSP421898]

For the dollar to reverse its long-term downtrend, analysts say China needs to take steps toward a more flexible currency regime, or the Fed has to signal imminent rate hikes.

"Neither of those prerequisites have been fulfilled, so the controlled, grinding lower of the dollar will continue," said Johan Javeus, strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

(Additional reporting by Jamie McGeever and Jessica Mortimer in London) (Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.