FOREX-Euro wraps up best quarter vs dollar in 8 years

Published 09/30/2010, 01:50 PM
Updated 09/30/2010, 01:56 PM

* Euro retreats from 5-month high vs dollar

* Euro on track for biggest quarterly gain in 8 years

* Dollar index hits 8-month low; month-end flows dominate

* Better-than-expected U.S. data caps USD losses (Recasts throughout; adds comments, changes byline)

By Vivianne Rodrigues

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The euro hit a fresh five-month high against the dollar and was on track for its best quarterly gains in eight years on Thursday after data showed euro zone banks are relying less on funds from the European Central Bank.

The news reinforced expectations Europe may gradually remove policy stimulus before the United States and Britain, helping offset concerns about Ireland's fiscal and banking problems.

The yen rose broadly on reported exporter demand for the currency on the last day of Japan's fiscal half-year. This sparked talk Japan may step in again to curb yen gains.

The euro's rally, however, seemed to be running out of steam in the short-term, analysts said. It reached the 55-week moving average around $1.3613 but failed to take out the previous high of $1.3692 hit last April 12.

"The euro rally has gone a bit too far and it was time to take profits. So the dollar as a result is benefiting," said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets.

In early afternoon trading in New York, the euro was little changed at $1.3618 , after trading as high as $1.3684 earlier.

As long as the euro holds above $1.3511, the previous 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the November 2009 peak and June 2010 low, momentum is likely to remain positive. The currency is still on track to hit its 200-week moving average at $1.3916, traders said.

"The lower level of emergency borrowing combined with the expiration of previous ECB loans reduces the amount of liquidity in Europe's banking system, puts upward pressure on money market rates and signals a gradual normalization in conditions," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc in Washington.

The dollar recouped some of its losses after a stronger-than-expected reading of business activity in the U.S. Midwest, with an index of 60.4, compared with forecasts of 56. (For Chicago PMI, click on [ID:nN30285357]; for jobless claims, click on [ID:nN30285244])

"This (Chicago PMI) was a solid number and certainly bodes well for the manufacturing sector. The positive data we've seen earlier in the day also contributes to the stabilization of the U.S. currency," said Joe Manimbo, currency trader, Travelex Global Business Payments in Washington.

"But despite the good numbers, the reports are not solid enough to prevent the Fed from adding more stimulus to the economy."

OPTIONS BARRIERS

In a day of heavy month- and quarter-end flows, the euro see-sawed after news on Ireland disclosing a worst case price tag of more than 50 billion euros to bail out its troubled banks. [ID:nLDE68T045]

The euro pushed through reported options barriers at $1.3650 and $1.3675 to hit a five-month high of $1.3684 on the EBS trading platform. Traders said there is another barrier at $1.3700 and every 25-point interval all the way to $1.38. The Irish news was outweighed by data on Thursday showing banks borrowed 29.4 billion euros of six-day ECB funds, ensuring a far bigger-than-expected drop in excess liquidity as 225 billion euros of ECB loans expire. That signaled a healthier outlook for money markets. [ID:nLDE68T13O].

The euro has risen almost 12 percent versus the dollar over the course of this quarter, its best quarterly performance since June 2002. On the month, the euro was up about 7.5 percent, its best monthly gains since December 2008.

Euro gains helped push the dollar index to an eight-month low against a basket of currencies.

The dollar index <.DXY> fell earlier to an eight-month low of 78.414 before rebounding to 78.807, little changed on the day. It has fallen about 8 percent over the quarter, leaving it on track for its biggest quarterly fall since the second quarter of 2002.

Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.3 percent to 83.46 yen , not far from a 15-year low of 82.87 hit on trading platform EBS earlier this month before Japan intervened and heightening worries they may step in again.

The Ministry of Finance said Japanese authorities sold 2.1249 trillion yen ($25.37 billion) in currency intervention in the latest month to Sept. 28. [ID:nTOE68T08I]

(Reporting by Vivianne Rodrigues; Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.