FOREX-Euro wins respite, dollar pauses as Ireland in focus

Published 11/14/2010, 10:18 PM
Updated 11/14/2010, 10:24 PM
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* Euro gets reprieve on hopes of Ireland financial aid

* But gains fragile and other EZ peripherals also watched

* China rates, slowdown worries underlying

By Charlotte Cooper and Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The euro edged higher on Monday, with some hoping for a rescue package for Ireland, but sentiment was fragile with the market watching other euro zone economies and nervous about a prospective tightening in China.

The yen was in retreat as buying in euros for yen pushed it down against the dollar as well and as firmer U.S. yields lent the dollar support. But Japanese exporters were expected to sell into the gains, meaning moves higher were likely to be limited.

One Japanese bank trader said macro hedge funds were buying back the euro against the greenback on hopes of a rescue package for Ireland, after the euro fell 2.3 percent last week.

But with the market watching for signs of whether other euro zone economies might also eventually need help, the euro's gains were likely to be limited, and some traders did not rule out a spate of consolidation before the euro probed lower again.

"Sentiment remains fragile as European bond concerns taken together with worries about monetary tightening in China have resulted in risk appetite declining," wrote Mitul Kotecha, global head of FX strategy at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.

"If Ireland does not accept EU funding this week the euro could see itself quickly in trouble again and the currency is likely to be sold on rallies up to $1.3826 in the short term."

The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3720, edging up early on bids from a U.S. bank. It fell to a six-week low of $1.3573 on Friday before talk of an EU aid package for Ireland lifted it.

Ireland did not rule out the possibility that it may have to turn to Europe for help in dealing with its debt crisis but said that no application had been made for assistance yet. Euro zone finance ministers meet in Brussels on Tuesday.

On the charts, the euro had major resistance at $1.3825/35, intraday highs in the middle of last week, and one dealer said if it could push above $1.38 then there might be scope for a rise back to $1.40, but it was likely to be capped there.

On the downside, it has support at its 55-day moving average at $1.3552 and needs a weekly close above its 100-week moving average, now at $1.3640, not to send a bearish signal.

It gained 0.3 percent on the low-yielding yen to 113.36 yen.

The dollar rose 0.2 percent to 82.63 yen, keeping well out of reach of its 15-year low of 80.21 yen set at the start of the month. The dealer said stop-loss buy orders were expected at 83 yen and 83.20.

The dollar has benefited from a sharp rise in Treasury yields as a run of better economic data led investors to toy with the idea of a sustainable recovery. The U.S. two-year swap rate jumped almost 18 basis points last week to 0.70 percent, the highest in two months.

"The dollar's relatively impressive performance comes before the Fed has even put one dollar's worth of QE2 to practical work, so some caution regarding the sustainability of this dollar rebound remains warranted," wrote analysts at TD Securities in a note to clients.

"But we wonder whether the past week's price action indicated that dollar sentiment was on the cusp of a significant trend change from a technical perspective," they added.

Investor appetite for risk took a hit on Friday on speculation China would have to tighten policy further to curb inflation. If so, that could ultimately cool the economy and China's demand for commodities.

However, the fact that no hike had materialised over the weekend gave a little support to risk.

Analysts noted the same fears abounded earlier in the year only for the Chinese economy to surprise with its resilience, but the latest bout of worries served as an excuse to take profits on leveraged positions in commodities.

The CRB index shed a steep 3.6 percent on Friday, while gold and oil both dropped, and commodity-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar fell steeply.

On Monday, gold had pulled up a little from the lows and the Aussie was up 0.4 percent at $0.9883, but still well off its recent 28-year peak around $1.0182.

The New Zealand dollar, which also took a spill on Friday, was soft at $0.7734 on Monday although upbeat retail sales data helped it pare some losses. (Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney and Masayuki Kitano in Tokyo, and Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar in Sydney; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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