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FOREX-Euro tumbles to more than 1-yr low vs dollar

Published 05/05/2010, 09:24 AM
Updated 05/05/2010, 09:36 AM
TRY/EUR
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* Contagion fears send euro to 14-month low vs dollar

* Dollar index climbs, US private sector adds jobs

* Germany warns euro debt crisis must stop at Greece (Recasts, updates prices, adds U.S. data, comment, changes dateline, byline)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, May 5 (Reuters) - Fear that a euro zone debt crisis may spread beyond Greece sent the euro below $1.29 for the first time in more than a year and rattled bond markets in Portugal and Spain, while U.S. jobs data boosted the dollar.

The euro fell as low as $1.2805, its lowest since March 2009, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned of contagion if a 110 billion euro ($146.5 billion) Greece rescue does not succeed.

"We're at a fork in the road," she told German lawmakers. "This is about nothing less than the future of Europe -- and with it, the future of Germany in Europe."

Kenneth Broux, market economist at Lloyds Banking Group in London, said traders are gunning for $1.25 as "the next big level on the downside."

The euro also fell 0.7 percent to 121.61 yen and hit its lowest level against sterling since August. The dollar was up 0.1 percent at 94.73 yen and hit a two-month high at 1.0325 Canadian dollars.

Anxious investors also cut exposure to European stocks and drove up the cost of insuring Greek, Spanish and Portuguese debt against default, while taking refuge in the dollar, which hit a one-year high against a basket of currencies.

While not in as parlous a bind as Greece, both Spain and Portugal have high budget deficits and have become targets of speculators who consider them the next weakest links in the 16-country euro zone.

Moody's said Wednesday it put Portugal's credit rating on review for a possible downgrade, and yields on short-dated Portuguese debt soared.

"Contagion fears are driving the market and add to pressure on the euro, as does the ongoing civil unrest in Greece that may make it hard to institute reforms," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

Separately, a report showing U.S. private employers added 32,000 jobs last month suggested the economy was on the mend, bolstering the view that U.S. interest rates will likely rise from record lows well before rates in the euro zone.

But analysts said the data was really just an added incentive for investors to do what they've been doing for weeks: buy dollars.

"The dollar is the safe haven of first choice." said BNY Mellon currency strategist Michael Woolfolk. "This is a market that is decidedly one-way right now, and that is looking for any excuse to sell the euro. Good news out of the U.S. or bad news out of Europe, take your pick."

Analysts said the market is starting to speculate the European Central Bank could announce plans to buy euro zone government debt at a meeting on Thursday to relieve pressure on countries hit by contagion fears.

For now, unnamed sources said the central bank remained reluctant to make the move, Market News International reported.

"You can't rule out the possibility the ECB could institute new measures, and that would amount to monetary easing, which is not good for the euro," Dolan said.

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