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FOREX-Euro surrenders gains after Fitch downgrades

Published 10/07/2011, 01:02 PM
Updated 10/07/2011, 01:04 PM
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* Euro surrenders gains vs dollar

* Fitch downgrades Spain and Italy credit ratings

* Moody's downgrades UK banks but sterling/dollar firm (Recasts, updates prices, adds details)

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The euro fell against the dollar on Friday, snapping a four-day advance after ratings agency Fitch cut Spain's credit rating just minutes after downgrading Italy, saying the euro zone debt crisis has implications for the entire region.

Fitch cut Spain to AA-minus from AA-plus and kept a negative outlook on the new rating in a sign more downgrades are possible in the next couple of years. For more see [ID:nWNA0352].

Earlier it cut Italy's sovereign credit rating one notch to A+ from AA-, saying the move reflected the worsening of the euro zone's debt crisis and an erosion of market confidence caused by the government's initially hesitant response to the rise in its bond yields. [ID:nWNA0347]

The euro had been up across the board before the downgrades after data showed U.S. employment grew more than expected in September, raising optimism about economic recovery.

But those gains quickly reversed as investor focus swung back to euro zone sovereign debt problems and the stresses in the European banking sector.

"This brings the sovereign debt crisis back into focus and raises the risk for contagion given Spain has been downgraded alongside Italy," said David Song, currency analyst at DailyFX in New York.

"There will be continued reliance on the ECB to do more when the (euro zone) is already struggling to pass a second bailout for Greece. As they try to gain time, things are getting worse."

The euro was last down 0.3 percent at $1.3403 on electronic trading platform EBS, still off a nine-month low of $1.3145 touched on Tuesday but well off the session peak of $1.3525.

Song said euro/dollar could fall to $1.30 in coming days.

Traders had earlier said the euro was still a sell on rallies with a good deal of scepticism over the euro zone's ability to pull together a swift response to the sovereign debt and banking crises.

The ECB stopped short of cutting rates on Thursday as some had speculated but announced other measures to stabilize the banking sector and euro zone economy.

Morgan Stanley said it had changed its short-term strategy and planned to buy pro-cyclical currencies like the Australian dollar and the euro over the next few days to take advantage of the corrective rebound.

In a note, its analysts argued that short positions in the euro were at an extreme and there was potential for a correction, although they remain bearish in the medium term.

UK BANKS DOWNGRADE

Sterling was in the spotlight, gaining against the dollar and the euro with currency investors largely ignoring a Moody's downgrade of some large UK banks [ID:nWLA6879]. The ratings cut came a day after the Bank of England announced more quantitative easing.

Sterling rose 0.9 percent to $1.5570 , according to Reuters data, having dived to its lowest in 14-1/2 months against the dollar at $1.5270 on Thursday after the BoE move.

The Australian dollar rose 0.4 percent to $0.9772 , on Reuters data, still close to a session high of $0.9879.

The dollar rose 0.05 percent to 76.757 yen on EBS with the session peak at 76.93 yen.

The yen barely moved after Bank of Japan kept monetary policy on hold. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the yen's rise was having a huge impact on the economy, keeping alive the risk of solo intervention by the Japanese [ID:nT9E7KM01E].

Earlier, as the U.S. session began, risk tolerance had climbed sharply after data showed U.S. employment grew more than expected in September, raising optimism about the U.S. economic recovery. [ID:nOAT004877]

But while the U.S. jobs report was widely welcomed by investors, analysts still expressed caution and it was not enough to offset the later negative news from Europe.

"This removes some of the concern that the labor market is getting worse," said John Doyle, currency strategist at Tempus Consulting in Washington. "But overall, this still isn't that many jobs, so while it's better than it could be, it's not great." (Reporting by Nick Olivari; Additional reporting by Steven C Johnson; Editing by James Dalgleish)

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