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FOREX-Euro rises before ECB, dollar, yen slip on risk

Published 12/03/2009, 04:09 AM
Updated 12/03/2009, 04:12 AM
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* Euro edges near 16-mth high vs dollar, ECB awaited

* Risk demand rises on BoA TARP payback announcement

* Yen slips, traders speculate possibility of intervention (Releads, updates throughout; previous TOKYO)

By Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The euro rose on Thursday, closing in on a 16-month high against the dollar on speculation the European Central Bank may take the first steps in winding down quantitative easing at a policy meeting later in the day.

The dollar slipped after Bank of America's announcement to repay bailout funds stoked risk demand, boosting stock markets, while the yen continued to struggle on speculation for more measures to boost the economy and the prospect of intervention to stem strength in the Japanese currency.

The ECB is widely expected to hold rates at a record low 1.0 percent when it announces its policy decision at 1245 GMT, and many in the market expect it will say that an offer of 1-year funds at rock-bottom rates later this month will be the last in a series of liquidity-boosting operations.

Analysts said they would scrutinise a news conference by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet following the decision to see whether he will further outline the central bank's exit strategy from fiscal stimulus measures.

Any departure from QE is seen as positive for the euro, and investors will also be watching for statements on the euro's recent strength against the dollar, which has taken a broad hit for much of the year on the view that U.S. rates will stay low as those of other countries rise.

At past news conferences, Trichet has backed the official U.S. position in favour of a strong dollar.

"We could see an erratic move if Trichet says something about a strong euro, but that's not likely to happen," said Carl Hammer, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

"Overall, it's likely there won't be anything from the ECB which will be euro negative," he said, adding he expected the euro to test the 16-month high of $1.5145 hit last week.

For a graphic on euro zone short-term interest rates implied by futures prices, click below:

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/129/EZ_ECBRT1209.gif

By 0826 GMT, the euro was up half of a percent at $1.5115, near the day's high around $1.5125.

A roughly 1 percent rise in European shares and oil prices boosted demand for risk, while gold hit a record high for the third straight session.

This helped to boost higher-yielding, commodity-based currencies including the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which each rose around 1 percent on the day.

YEN STRUGGLES

Risk demand also rose on expectations that BoA will repay the $45 billion it received under the Troubled Asset Relief Program over the next few days.

This increased optimism more major U.S. banks may pay back government bailout money, indicating the banking sector is finding its footing after the global financial crisis escalated last autumn.

Despite its losses against most currencies, the dollar rose 0.4 percent against the yen to 87.80 yen.

The dollar pulled further away from a 14-year low of 84.82 yen as news Japan's top Finance Ministry official for currencies has met with U.S. Treasury officials this week ratcheted up speculation Japan may act to slow the yen's appreciation.

Talk of intervention got a boost after Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said on Wednesday the yen's recent rise could not be left alone..

The Bank of Japan signalled on Wednesday it was open to more measures to support the economy, including QE, after its emergency meeting the previous day offered short-term funding, disappointed markets expecting for more measures..

In general, QE undermines a currency's value because it expands money supply to levels that could potentially lead to higher inflation. (Editing by Chris Pizzey) ((naomi.tajitsu@reuters.com; +44 207 542 5830; Reuters Messaging: naomi.tajitsu.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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