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FOREX-Euro rises as Spanish debt auction boosts optimism

Published 06/15/2010, 04:20 PM
Updated 06/15/2010, 04:23 PM
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* Euro climbs above $1.23 to 2-week high

* Auctions outweigh weak German ZEW sentiment data

* Analysts see more euro short squeeze, worries remain

(Adds details, updates prices, adds comment)

By Wanfeng Zhou

NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) - The euro hit a two-week high above $1.23 on Tuesday as solid demand at European debt auctions eased worries about the region's fiscal crisis and prompted investors to cover short positions in the currency.

A surprisingly large fall in an index of German investor sentiment briefly slowed the euro's advance by suggesting the 16-country euro zone may face a period of slow growth.

But investors decided to look on the bright side after Spain raised 5.2 billion euros at auctions for 12- and 18-month bills. Belgium netted 2.5 billion euros in an oversubscribed auction of its own.

For details, see [ID:nLDE65E0TL], [ID:nLDE65E0WQ] [ID:nWLA6316], and [ID:nTAR001853].

"The refundings went better than expected. At least they can get their business done without having it be exorbitantly expensive. I think that's really important," said Andrew Busch, currency strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago. "We have run the cycle of downward pressure on the euro for the time being."

The euro was up 1 percent at $1.2340 , after rising as high as $1.2349, the strongest level since June 1. On Monday, it closed above its 14-day moving average for the first time since mid-April, suggesting the currency could rise further.

Against the yen, the euro was up 0.9 percent at 112.82 yen. The dollar fell 0.1 percent to 91.40 yen .

The Swiss franc jumped more than 1 percent to a one-month high of 1.1299 francs per dollar. Sterling rose 0.5 percent to $1.4821 .

Analysts said traders were taking profits on stretched euro short positions. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed speculators had boosted bets against the euro in the week ended June 8 to just shy of record levels. [IMM/FX]

"I think essentially we're at a point right now where the market feels that the worst for the euro has been priced in for the time being," said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at GFT in New York. "We have sort of run out of fresh reasons to short the euro."

CORRECTIVE MOVE?

Traders said central bank bids have helped keep the euro above $1.20 over the last few trading sessions.

By rising above $1.2342 on Tuesday, the euro surpassed the 38 percent retracement of a sharp decline that began at $1.3094 in early May and bottomed out at $1.1876 last week.

Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Win Thin said that could presage a move to $1.2485. But he also said the euro may find it tough to go much further in the near future.

"Given that the root problem of insolvency remains in place for several euro zone countries, we continue to view this euro rally as a corrective move before the next move down," he said.

A decision Monday by Moody's Investors Services to cut Greece's credit rating to junk highlighted the issues still facing some peripheral euro zone countries, as did a warning from Spain's treasury secretary that lenders were facing a liquidity freeze in the interbank market.[ID:nMDT009101

Greek government bonds will attract an extra 5 percent penalty when banks use them as security for European Central Bank funds, an ECB spokesman said on Tuesday. [ID:nLDE65E1J2]]

Analysts said this suggests the euro will resume its decline, and some economists have it falling to anywhere from $1.15 to parity with the U.S. dollar by year's end.

"If you told me the euro would be close to parity by year's end, I don't think I'd argue with you," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, told a real estate conference in New York.

(Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson and Al Yoon; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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