🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

FOREX-Euro rises as France, Germany exit recession

Published 08/13/2009, 04:03 PM
Updated 08/13/2009, 04:06 PM

* Upside surprises in German, French GDP buoy euro

* U.S. retail sales and jobless claims data disappoint

* Euro zone economy shrinks just 0.1 pct in 2nd quarter (Updates prices)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - The euro rose against the dollar for the second straight session on Thursday as data showed the euro zone's two biggest economies unexpectedly returned to growth in the second quarter of the year.

News that Germany and France pulled out of recession in the April-to-June period contrasted with disappointing U.S. retail sales data for July, which cast a shadow over an anticipated consumer rebound and sent the dollar lower against the yen.

The retail sales report and figures showing a surprise jump in U.S. workers filing first-time jobless claims last week came a day after the Federal Reserve gave its clearest signal yet that it thinks the U.S. recession is nearing an end.

"The (European) data definitely caused a rethink of what to expect from the euro zone and people are jumping all over the euro," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut.

He said markets also expect the U.S. economy to recover but said Thursday's data was a reminder that "U.S. consumers are still looking at a massive debt burden that won't go away soon," suggesting a "slow and protracted" recovery.

The euro was last up 0.7 percent at $1.4282 after rising to $1.4327, its highest in a week, according to Reuters data.

The dollar was down 0.8 percent at 95.35 yen while the euro fell 0.1 percent to 136.22 yen. Sterling rose 0.5 percent to $1.6570.

Higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars gained more than 1 percent each, extending rises from the previous day.

Analysts said the euro zone forecast was not uniformly sunny, noting the economy of the 16-country zone shrank 4.6 percent from a year ago. It also contracted 0.1 percent in the second quarter after shrinking 2.5 percent in the January-to-March period.

Wilkinson said the euro's failure to push up to $1.4350 mean it may be vulnerable to a pullback on Friday.

None of that dulled investor disappointment with the 0.1 percent slide in U.S .retail sales, especially as it followed the Fed's upbeat assessment and last week's data showing U.S. employers cut fewer jobs than expected in July.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected retail sales to rise 0.7 percent, partly thanks to a boost from the government's "cash for clunkers" program that gives money to swap aging, gas-guzzling cars for new, more efficient ones.

"The decline in the headline number for retail sales, despite much talk of the 'cash for clunkers' program, came as a big disappointment," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

"I'm not surprised to see the dollar giving up its earlier gains versus the yen as investors are flocking to the Japanese currency as a safe haven."

Some investors said even the Fed this week had left a lot open to interpretation.

"The problem with the Fed statement is that the market can read into it what it wants, leaving both sides content," said Stuart Bennett, senior FX strategist at Calyon in London. "Hence, for now, it is still unclear which way the dollar will jump." (Additional reporting by Nick Olivari and Vivianne Rodrigues in New York and Naomi Tajitsu in London; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.