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FOREX-Euro rises as France, Germany exit recession

Published 08/13/2009, 01:53 PM
Updated 08/13/2009, 01:57 PM
EUR/JPY
-

* Upside surprise in German, French GDP buoys euro

* U.S. retail sales and jobless claims data disappoint

* Euro zone economy shrinks just 0.1 pct in 2nd quarter (Updates prices, adds comment, detail, changes byline)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - The euro rose against the dollar for the second straight session on Thursday as data showed the euro zone's two biggest economies unexpectedly returned to growth in the second quarter of the year.

News that Germany and France pulled out of recession in the April-to-June period contrasted with disappointing U.S. retail sales data for July, which cast a shadow over an anticipated consumer rebound. That weakened the dollar, which also fell 1 percent against the Japanese yen.

The retail sales report, and figures showing a surprise jump in the number of U.S. workers filing first-time jobless claims last week, came a day after the Federal Reserve gave its clearest signal yet that it saw the U.S. recession nearing an end.

"The (European) data definitely cased a rethink of what to expect from the euro zone and are jumping all over the euro," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut.

He said markets also expect the U.S. economy to recover but said the Thursday data was a reminder that "U.S. consumers are still looking at a massive debt burden that won't go away soon," suggesting a "slow and protracted" recovery.

The euro was last up 0.7 percent at $1.4300 after earlier rising to $1.4327, its highest level in a week, according to Reuters data.

The dollar fell 1 percent to 95.13 yen , giving up its earlier gains after the U.S. data, while the euro fell 0.3 percent to 135.98 yen . Sterling rose 0.6 percent to $1.6580 .

Analysts said the euro-zone forecast was not uniformly sunny, noting the economy of the 16-country zone shrank 4.6 percent from a year ago. It also contracted 0.1 percent in the second quarter after shrinking 2.5 percent in the January-to-March period.

While Wilkinson said the French and German data may prompt some investors to look for upward growth revisions for this year and next, he added that the euro has to break above $1.4350 Thursday to convince investors its rally is for real.

None of that dulled investor disappointment with the 0.1 percent slide in U.S .retail sales, especially as it followed the Fed's upbeat assessment and last week's data showing U.S. employers cut fewer jobs than expected in July.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected retail sales to rise 0.7 percent in July, partly thanks to a boost from the government's "cash for clunkers" program that gives consumers money to swap aging gas-guzzling cars for new, more efficient ones.

"The decline in the headline number for retail sales, despite much talk of the 'cash for clunkers' program, came as a big disappointment," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "I'm not surprised to see the dollar giving up its earlier gains versus the yen as investors are flocking to the Japanese currency as a safe haven." For more on the U.S. data, see [ID:nLD699131]

Higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars gained more than 1 percent each, extending rises from the previous day.

Some investors said even the Fed this week had left a lot open to interpretation.

"The problem with Fed statement is that the market can read into it what it wants, leaving both sides content," said Stuart Bennett, senior FX strategist at Calyon in London. "Hence, for now, it is still unclear which way the dollar will jump," (Additional reporting by Nick Olivari and Vivianne Rodrigues in New York and Naomi Tajitsu in London; Editing by Padraic Cassidy)

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