FOREX-Euro rises across the board, but gains seen limited

Published 11/19/2010, 02:50 PM
Updated 11/19/2010, 02:52 PM
EUR/JPY
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* Euro steadies on hopes for Irish aid package support

* Options market suggests euro sentiment improving

* China tightens by raising bank reserve requirements (Adds quote, updates prices, changes byline)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The euro rose broadly on Friday, gaining for a third straight day versus the dollar, as investors grew more confident that Ireland's debt crisis would be resolved.

Gains in the euro, however, may prove temporary, with investors generally fearful Ireland's problems could spread to other peripheral economies in the euro zone.

Hopes that Ireland was near a deal to get tens of billions of euros from its European partners and the IMF helped push the euro above $1.37 overnight, although momentum stalled ahead of resistance around $1.3750. Traders said this level is likely to hold until markets get more details on the Irish rescue plan.

In the currency options market, euro sentiment stabilized for now. The one-month euro/dollar risk reversal, a barometer of currency sentiment, started to creep higher, suggesting investors near-term are starting to get less euro-bearish.

The euro's risk reversal still showed a "put" bias, but it has risen from extremely low levels. On Friday, puts traded higher -- a mid-market of -1.175 vols , with bids at -1.55 vols. On Thursday, bids on euro puts were at -1.60, falling from -2.025 vols early this week, a roughly 2-1/2-month low.

"The fall-out from the banking crisis will play out in Irish politics and in the economy for years to come. From a global perspective, however, the tension in Ireland appears to have come off the boil and this is lending support to the euro," said Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank in London.

A deal to help Ireland cope with its battered banks will be unveiled next week, EU sources said on Friday. Ireland will publish the details of a four-year fiscal plan to save 15 billion euros at roughly the same time. For details, see [ID:nLDE6AI0QG]

TECHNICAL CORRECTION IN EURO

In early afternoon trading, the euro was up 0.3 percent at $1.3678, after rising as high as $1.3733 on trading platform EBS. It has recovered from a slide to a seven-week low of $1.3446 earlier in the week and is poised to end the week slightly lower against the dollar.

"This abrupt calming in the markets coincides with an expected technical correction in the euro," said John Ross Crooks III, director of research at Black Swan Capital Management in Florida.

Right now, Crooks said the euro is likely to pull back toward its 72-hour moving average at about $1.3600. From there, the euro should go higher to $1.3820 and $1.3975.

Some analysts said even if Ireland does get a rescue, the euro is unlikely to see a big rally. "If there's a bailout for Ireland, that's been largely priced in," said Aroop Chatterjee, currency strategist at Barclays Capital in New York.

He added that funding concerns and fiscal consolidation will remain negative for the euro next year. He expects the euro to rise to $1.38 in one month, before sliding to around $1.30 over 12 months.

News overnight that China tightened monetary policy by raising banks' reserve requirements somewhat dented risk appetite. [ID:nL3E6MJ0N8]

The impact was felt by higher-yielding commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar. Australia is a large exporter of commodities to China and tends to weaken on worries of a slowdown in the Chinese economy. The Aussie dollar last traded at down 0.3 percent against the greenback at US$0.9858.

A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in Frankfurt helped push down U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a fall in the dollar versus the yen. Bernanke hit back at critics of the Fed's latest bond-buying program. He also issued a thinly veiled attack on China's policy of keeping its currency weak. [ID:nN18107490]

The dollar last traded at 83.48 yen , flat on the day. The euro, meanwhile, rose 0.1 percent agaisnt the yen to 114.06 . (Additional reporting by Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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